>the tendency, when making predictions, to project the present into the future?
here's an article that contends that's pretty much all you can do anymore:
Blinded by Science
July 14, 2002
By PATRICIA LEIGH BROWN
THE impossible isn't what it used to be.
Not so long ago, the realms of science fact and science
fiction seemed worlds apart, two swirling spheres orbiting
each other around the galaxy.
But lately, news flashes from the front lines of science
suggest a bewildering telepathic collision between fact and
fantasy. In Australia, researchers in quantum optics say
they have "teleported" a radio-signal message in a laser
beam, using the same kind of principles that enabled Scotty
to beam up Captain Kirk. In rural Quebec, images of H. G.
Wells's "The Island of Dr. Moreau" have alighted upon
genetically altered goats whose milk contains a gene from
the golden-orb weaving spider, enabling goats to produce
milk containing superstrong spider silk. Meanwhile, two
young British researchers invented a "tooth phone" - a
microvibrator and low-frequency receiver that can be
implanted into one's tooth, raising the possibility of a
James Bond dental experience while undergoing root canal.
All this and "cc" - the cloned cat produced earlier this
year by Texas scientists - too.
The whirlwind convergence of science fact and fiction
raises the question of whether a sense of the impossible is
becoming passe. "Science fact is rapidly outstripping
science fiction," said Neil Gershenfeld, head of the new
Center for Bits and Atoms at M.I.T.'s Media Laboratory,
where a researcher is developing "paintable" computers with
chips suspended in viscous liquid, making the idea of
running to the hardware store to buy a few gallons of
computer a distinct possibility.
"I feel great sympathy for science fiction writers these
days," said Paul Saffo, a director at the Institute for the
Future in Palo Alto, Calif. "People used to go to
psychiatrists to say, `the C.I.A. planted a chip in my
brain.' Now, the family dog has a chip to prevent him from
getting lost. In a few years, psychiatrists may be asking,
`Have you been chipped?' "
Even paranoia isn't what it used to be.
In his
forthcoming book "I'm Working on That: A Trek From Science
Fiction to Science Fact," William Shatner explores the
reciprocity between Starship Enterprise fantasy and
real-life scientific breakthroughs. "What was suggested 30
years ago in `Star Trek' is now old hat," he said in a
telephone interview. "If you analyze the word `impossible,'
you break it down into `possible' and `I'm.' If I'm
possible, anything is possible. One imagined flight of
fantasy builds on another."
It all gets surreal.
As a culture, we have become writers of our own fantasy
saga in which pacemakers, cloning, the Internet, speech
recognition software and the like are merely part of the
scenery. And while much of what now seems humdrum was first
envisioned in science fiction - from mobile phones ("Star
Trek") to fax machines (Philip K. Dick) - it can sometimes
seem as though the tables have been turned, with reality
now providing inspiration to fantasy.
The science-fiction writer Bruce Sterling, who once wrote
about goats genetically altered to produce plastic
explosives, sees scientists unveiling more and more ideas
that can feed a fertile sci-fi mind. "They're becoming more
peculiar and far out," he said. "They're really into
antigravity and time travel."
Mr. Sterling recently returned from a Computer Research
Association conference, where computer scientists hobnobbed
about genetic algorithms and ubiquitous computing. He says
he came away with a full spiral notebook and the germs of a
novel's plot: a world in which every object is seeded with
sensors, where black helicopters hover over smoking ruins
and spew out computers that detect breathing.
To the biologist Robert J. Full, director of the Poly-Pedal
Lab at the University of California at Berkeley, this is "a
revolutionary moment" made possible by cross-fertilization
between disciplines. His laboratory is using the principles
of insect locomotion and the suction qualities of geckos'
toes to develop lifelike robots, including a fetching
self-righting six-legged fellow named RHex. RHex emerged
from collaborations between biologists, engineers,
mathematicians, computer scientists, and even Pixar
animators working on "A Bug's Life." Interplay with
once-alien colleagues is allowing scientists to venture
where they haven't gone before - and science buffs are
taking notice.
IN San Francisco, the Long Now Foundation, a nonprofit
organization that is building a 10,000-year clock, recently
launched a Web site called LongBets .org that attempts to
take the pulse of the impossible. People - many of them big
shots - are placing bets on what the future holds and will
be publicly accountable for their predictions. Among them:
"By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in
pilotless planes," and "At least one human alive in the
year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."
"Things that clearly seemed impossible a few years ago,
like nanotechnology, have moved from the lunatic fringe to
core doctrine more quickly than at any time in history,"
said Stewart Brand, a founder of Long Now. "The downside
has become taking the long term seriously. We need to
develop civilizational patience."
In the meantime, it might be difficult to keep fantasy from
springing forth from newfound scientific realities.
Especially dreams of gossamer spider-silk evening gowns and
Sean Connery whispering sweet nothings into our molars.
Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company
