it is also a failure of imagination.. computer are prime example.. even though they were known in the 1940 and 1950, no one ever imaginged they would shrink in size, and become universally available.. (to any one who has money)
many science fiction writers of the 40's and 50's envision computers as tool that are only available in giant companies, governments, and universities, very few thought that they would be come everday tools, and small enought to fit in a pocket! Today's Palm pilots do more than enniac, faster, cheaper, with 1/10,000 of the space and energy requirements!
one of my father's "greenhorn" stories about coming to america is about his choice to fly to US.. in 1948, flying was so expensive and exotic, he thought, this is going to be my one and only opportunity in my lifetime to take an airplain... and i'm doing it!
i first flew in 1960, and by the late 1980's, my parents has so many airmiles, they flew to alaska free! so in my fathers lifetime, flying has gone from a once in a life time type experience to a normal mode of travel..but he failed to see that possiblity! and he is not alone..
improvement to engines, and economies of scale have made airtravel everyday..
my personal view of the next big innovation? transdermal electrical rechargers.. so batteries will be come obsolete.
we will charge our phones, our portable CD, our beepers just by walking and talking. and we will use even more electronic gadgets, because keeping them charged will be easier!
