Hmmm...we're getting no where with Joe using words, Mister Faldage.
What say we dazzle Friday with numbers?
Hey Joe, like you, a guy on the net couldn't see beyond the gumshoe logic that is endemic to those who are blessed with being average. But he was a hardheaded fellow and was dogged to try.
These are his results....
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He did the sequence of two steps a billion times.
And here are his results:
"
Number of times I stayed with the choice in step (2): 499,990,387
Number of times I chose to switch: 500,009,613
Number of times I was right when I stayed: 166,585,940
Number of times I was right when I switched: 333,391,697
Fraction right when I stayed: 0.333
Fraction right when I switched: 0.666."
Yet he still can't intuit the process.
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