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Ok, back to my thought experiment. You've chosen one of the cards and have a one in three chance of being right. Now I put a finger on one of the other cards. Have the odds of your being right changed? If so, why?



okay, drag away the dead horse.

I "get" the logic of it -- once you've picked a door, with your 1:3 chance, the odds of the other two total 2:3. Now Monty obligingly removes one of those, but the odds on the remainder? 2:3, et viola!

but I just can't get [s]over[/s] around the notion that there are two doors extant, and (intuitively) it's a coin flip.