The overwhelming (to me, at least) paradox of "the laws of chance" dictate that on each selection you have an equal chance of making the correct (or incorrect) choice.
I see the logic involved in changing from 1 out of 3 to 50%.
But I always remember:
We know by the "laws" of chance, if you were to flip a coin in the air 1000 times; about 500 times it will land on tails.
However, it is entirely possible that flip # 300 through 500 are ALL heads.

Pondering this always causes me a headache !!

--------------------

"I am certain there is too much certainty in the world" -Michael Crichton