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Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
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<<wasn't that the 1939 world's fair>> I knew I put the brackets around the wrong digit!  [certificate of immaturity and stupidity emoticon]
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Futuring the present can not only be predictive/projective but productiveor at least a self-fulfilling prophecy!  I wonder - if a group of people had seen the US built around the automobile as something fantastically undesirable, could they have even slowed up what happened? I suspect that the "law of reversed effort" would have applied, and they would find they were merely providing extra publicity for something completely inevitable. I also wonder which is most effective in bringing about change: 1. Portrayal of a negative future, being what will happen if you don't do a defined something. 2. Portrayal of a positive future, being what will happen if you do do a defined something. I know which one looks like it should be most effective, but is that actually borne out by reality?
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somehow, houses haven't changed that much.. (well the dweller of the 300+ year old house complain about the damp..Just recalled seeing my sister in law recently. She lives (along with her family - hubby, 5 kids & a dog) in a huge, lovely old farmhouse (17thC/18thC I think) - but it came at a big price, and continues to cost a fortune in maintenance. I suppose in some ways people used to build better, with nice thick walls, etc, but in many ways building techniques have improved hugely, and modern buildings are much more economical to run and maintain. Think about thatching, for instance. Delightful stuff, as picturesque as you can get, but expensive. There are also often problems with renovating this kind of property in the UK. "Listed buildings" or buildings in "conservation areas" are quite rightly protected, but this will tend to mean even more expense if you want to introduce modern features whilst retaining the original character. We've had a couple of excellent home improvements recently - double-glazing and replacing the kitchen (which involved moving a boiler and taking down a flue/chimney). I'd hate to be in a situation where I couldn't do that kind of stuff; and it would really rankle to be unable to make my home more environmentally friendly. So personally, I'm going to stick with 1920ish onwards houses even when I do make my million  Sorry, this is all a bit unromantic of me, but sadly it is also true!
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Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
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Diving quickly in and out (no time) of this fascinating cats cradle of thoughts and ideas, how about "prescient" as THE WORD.
There was a sci-fi book (or may be a trilogy?) by James Blish called "The Flying Cities" or some such title. Very imaginative tales about the cities of earth having outlived their usefulness in an age gone back to its agrarian roots. The cities up and left to go and look for work, taking themselves off into space with the aid of a device called a spindizzy. The mayor of New York was the hero - someone mentioned deja vu? - and the final ending occurred one nanosecond past "The Restaurant at the End of the Universe". Can anyone confirm the title?
dxb
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Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
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the AMNH has a imax film on water.. and focus on the NY water system. NY water system, is basicly over 100 years old, an delivers all of the cities water needs (it was stressed by a drought, that ended in May) and it is primarly gravity fed. NYC water cleanliness and purity exceeds (i will admit at time low) US Federal standards... and is treated only with a low level of clorination.
but.. cities like NY are dependant on resourses far out of their reaches.. NY Water comes from reservours 100 miles away.. and while it has a good system, it has no viable alterantive.. with the lose or distructions of the water system, NY, would fade from sight, and other cities would take over its functions.. no one city would take over all of them i suspect, but still NY would sink into oblivion.. and as its resourses and value as a city failed, the harbor, in danger already of silting up, would. with out a port, or a good water supply, NY would lose 90% of its populations, and just be another small city half on the east coast, like new london or bridgeport..
likewise, energy in NYC is generated in Canada and Niagara falls.. (there are local generators, but we are dependent on the "grid", too..
i don't see how cities can outlive there usefulnes.. but what is defined as useful does change.. NY as i pointed out a few weeks ago, has a great natural Harbor, Bean, our resident oceanographer, said, oh, yeah... most people don't think of NY as port town. NY main focus has moved from ocean going shipping to financial management..
good cities have the ability to change.. Much is often made of Atlanta (GA) -- a city famous because it did not start out on a river or port.. but rather as a rail hub..
1000 years ago, overland transport was expensive and unreliable, and all cities were ports, for local and distant shipping.. some of those port silted up, and the cities disappeared.. others, developed lives for themselves aside from there original purpose.
150 years ago, Sag Harbor NY, and New Bedford MA were big cities.. Centers for whalers, and whale oil, whale ivory, and other imports.. today, both have remade themselves over as seaside resorts town. but both had hard times as they changed.. and some port cities never succeded in changing and langish.
other cities, redefine themselves to new needs..
London and Paris, port cities and capitals are no longer dependant on shipped goods or the crown. tourism, fashion, finacial markets contribute more to the cities health than shipping.. they have evolved.
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Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
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<<or at least a self-fulfilling prophecy>>
"productive" in a literal sense and without connoting value; as a factory may be said to be productive.
Concerning the "law of reversed effort," that's a nice term ([truly emoticon}), where'd you find it? -- in terms of the advancement of the auto industry's program, one would need to look at the whole scheme of communications, pr, and beliefs about industry and progress and political and economic and regulatory environment at that time in order to make an assessment. I don't think you could make any direct inferences based on what one might expect to happen today. It is interesting that various agenda should acquire an air of inevitability under the rubrick of progress, though -- so that it almost doesn't seem to matter which, positive or negative, future you pick.
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the "law of reversed effort," that's a nice term ([truly emoticon}), where'd you find it? I personally found it when addicted to Alan Watts (as a student, surprisingly enough ): http://www.manypaths.com/book13.htmBut I've only just found the term was first coined by Emile Coue "the father of auto-suggestion": http://www.geocities.com/recutter/rel4.htmlI certainly believe in the basic truth of the law; very often the more you try to do something, the more you achieve the opposite of what you intended. it almost doesn't seem to matter which, positive or negative, future you pickYes. Events can take on a life of their own, and achieve such a momentum that it's difficult even varying their course a little. On the other hand (butterfly's wings and what have you), in the global village relatively small events can add up to make a huge difference. Damn, me off into philosophy again. 
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this fascinating cats cradle of thoughts and ideasWhat a pleasant and positive term for something that could easily be seen as an anarchic mish-mash of tangential (?) observations, David  (and mea culpa to the extent this thread is like that) how about "prescient" as THE WORDHmmm. I think "prescient" relates more to the accuracy of predictions than to the way the predictions are made. You could say someone was prescient whether they did a linear projection of the present into the future or whether they took a leap into the unknown on the basis of little or no current experience - as long as the prediction turned out to be accurate. I think I'm tending towards visionary to describe the "non-linear" predictions (and predictors). Still haven't firmed up on a term for the "linear futurologists" - though last night a friend suggested to me that such people suffer from temporal inertia
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old hand
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old hand
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Define the tendency, when making predictions, to project the present into the future, then make up a name that will delineate and effect that condition.OK, Mister Fishonabike, Mister one hand clapping, I will attempt your rue de gra dea and so preclude your challenge. - - oui? In a later message I remain, Milo Washington.
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Mister one hand clappingThat's "fin", surely? Or we'll never hear the end of it. So let me be the first to throw in the Tao. Incidentally, just found an amusing and informative link on "the sound of one hand": http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a1_049your rue de gra dea"Road of fa(t) god". Hmmm. Lost me here, Mr Washington, sir!
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