|
|
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803 |
Some of us ain' had no time to plow through the logical fallacies left unexpressed. The unknown knowns, if you will.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 631
addict
|
|
addict
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 631 |
I think under the circumstances it will be easy for the woman to convince all three men to help her "get with child" since the alternative is the extinguishment of humanity. Then again, the human species of the future in this scenario are to be descendants of three NY metrosexuals and a woman from Alabama, so what hope is there anyway?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,290
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,290 |
W V O Quine, J Searle, and D Hofstadter walk into a bar. One of them orders a twelve-inch pianist. Who was it?
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 1,529
veteran
|
|
OP
veteran
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 1,529 |
 You boys really don't understand the precis, do you? Oh well, I won't bother you about this anymore. You fellows go back to looking up amusing words in your books. 
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 456
addict
|
|
addict
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 456 |
This concept as set out in the game example is just B unk S ee, did not really put what you expected So what if the odds become 50:50 by showing one of the wrong doors? That is not going to change which door is the 'one', even if you were "more likely to be wrong on the first pick". Picking the same one again still has 50% chance, but the act of choosing has some mysterious power over the hidden result? B uffoonery . 
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542 |
the *kicker in this problem is Monty Hall (the rat). He knows which is the right door, and will always reveal a wrong one. In doing so, he "freezes" the odds on your first choice at one in three! but the remaining door obviously has odds of one in two of being right!!
and the real gut-shot is that if you get down to the last two cases in Deal or No Deal, it's just a coin flip.
edit: not that I expect this will sway any doubters..
Last edited by tsuwm; 11/09/06 09:41 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803 |
Quote:
This concept as set out in the game example is just B unk S ee, did not really put what you expected
So what if the odds become 50:50 by showing one of the wrong doors? That is not going to change which door is the 'one', even if you were "more likely to be wrong on the first pick". Picking the same one again still has 50% chance, but the act of choosing has some mysterious power over the hidden result? B uffoonery .
The whole point is the odds aren't 50-50. As tsuwm pointed out, they stay 1 in 3 for the first door you picked. Then you must proceed to ignore where he said:
Quote:
but the remaining door obviously has odds of one in two of being right!!
since it obviously has odds of two in three of being right.
As to Milo's fair damsel, my prediction is that she will mate with all three in whatever order they choose. The joke is on them, though, since recent studies indicate that the last guy is the most likely to have offspring as a result of the encounter.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542 |
>since it obviously has odds of two in three of being right.
this is where y'all lose me (but I'm sure only momentarily). isn't the door revealed by Monty out of play, leaving just the two - one good and one not so?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803 |
Quote:
>since it obviously has odds of two in three of being right.
this is where y'all lose me (but I'm sure only momentarily). isn't the door revealed by Monty out of play, leaving just the two - one good and one not so?
Ok, back to my thought experiment. You've chosen one of the cards and have a one in three chance of being right. Now I put a finger on one of the other cards. Have the odds of your being right changed? If so, why?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542 |
Quote:
Ok, back to my thought experiment. You've chosen one of the cards and have a one in three chance of being right. Now I put a finger on one of the other cards. Have the odds of your being right changed? If so, why?
okay, drag away the dead horse.
I "get" the logic of it -- once you've picked a door, with your 1:3 chance, the odds of the other two total 2:3. Now Monty obligingly removes one of those, but the odds on the remainder? 2:3, et viola!
but I just can't get [s]over[/s] around the notion that there are two doors extant, and (intuitively) it's a coin flip.
|
|
|
|
Forums16
Topics13,913
Posts229,330
Members9,182
| |
Most Online3,341
Dec 9th, 2011
|
|
|
0 members (),
1,018
guests, and
1
robot. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
|
