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#75904 07/12/02 07:59 PM
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i have heard them called both moon and sun roofs..

i haven't figured out the difference, but my car manual refers to it as a moon roof..

i can shut it and cover it up (inside the car) so it looks like a solid ceiling..

i can tilt it up (with the ceiling panel in place, and have it vent, with out any light coming in) i can tilt it up with the ceiling panel slid out of the way (and have a glass roof, tilted open, or i can open it... and have a big hole in the ceiling.. (all with the touch of a button or two..)




#75905 07/12/02 08:37 PM
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A sunroof is an opaque moonroof without the secondary roof below it

I understand the difference now thanks, TEd, but us simplistic Brits don't specify that difference, and call them both "sunroofs". I suppose "moonroof" implies something you may have open at night, and there are so few occasions you'd want that given our climate [rueful smile]


#75906 07/12/02 08:56 PM
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a paradigm shift..being able to see, that a technology fills a need that people don't even know that they have

Is this the difference between invention and innovation? I've never quite been clear on that one.

Paradigm shifts were first described by Kuhn (nice summary of his viewpoint here: http://cgi.student.nada.kth.se/cgi-bin/d95-aeh/get/kuhneng) the term used in relation to "scientific revolutions" i.e. the old ways take a lot of shifting, and the history books get rewritten afterwards so that it looks like the revolutionary development was a natural conclusion of what was happening already. I found his book enlightening and refreshingly honest; rationality doesn't really rule the roost, and the tree needs shaking from time to time.

But but - we're still no closer to a word for people who can (or can't) make a kind of paradigm shift in their predictions, allowing for revolution(s) to come. It's a real skill to be able to discard the (recorded) past and present when looking ahead, so surely there should be a word for it!

I think I may try to invent one


#75907 07/12/02 09:36 PM
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ever heard of psychohistory?


#75908 07/12/02 09:53 PM
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psychohistory?

As in Asimov's Foundation series? Yup.

I think that's what tsuwm's futurology aspires to be - a scientific prediction of trends, and some significant specifics.

Asimov's hero (Hari Seldon, was it?) was a bit of a superhero, though - he allowed for everything in his predictions, eh?


#75909 07/12/02 10:24 PM
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In reply to:

Asimov's hero (Hari Seldon, was it?) was a bit of a superhero, though - he allowed for everything in his predictions, eh?


Not mutations. That's why the Mule caused so much trouble.



#75910 07/12/02 10:57 PM
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part of seeing the future, is seeing what will be a problem in the near future, and then anticapating how the problem will be dealt with..

Malthus saw population out stripping production of food, and saw only a famine.. Darwin saw other possiblities.. such as increases in food productions..(he looked backward, to be sure, but he saw the past as an indication of the future) famine was only one possiblity...

sure enough, soon, man had learned how to remove nitogen from the air, instead of being dependant on guano, and food production increased, no famine..

or as an other example, electronic's grew during WWII, the sheer weight of the wiring was becoming a factor in building planes.. there needed to be a better way to wire components.. first step was introductions of circut boards.. and they lead--to transistors --as scientist/engineers saw a new way of making circuts... and the idea of flat wires-, and that idea plus new product technology lead first to transistors and from there to chips!

which actually lead to planes being better equipped, and weighing less.. so the expensive technology of 1947 (the year my father immegrated..) was soon replaced with lighter faster planes, that could carry more payload, and resulted in cheaper costs to consumers.. and so 40 years later, he had flown over 100,000 in less than 3 years, and qualified for a free flight to alaska!

what problems is looming now for the world? can some of the political problems of the mid east vs modern world find new solutions?

In modern (western) countries, muslims embrace technology.. one specialize gizmo that sells well in NY is a program for a sharp/franklin (and other PDA's)-- that is programed to provide reminders to the devout when they should pray (since the , the, (the guy who calls all the devout muslems to pray from the mineret) is not a common site on NY street corners. )

what other problems are looming? polutions? energy? resourses like fresh water? what technology exist to solve these problems? and if the technology doesn't exist.. it will be invented

last year, when California was having an energy crisis, it was pointed out, it would be cheaper for the state to buy every household solar panals than to continue subsidizing energy producers.. problem was, there weren't enough solar panals in the world.. but if the state goverment made it a plan, and there would now a huge market for panels, more people would produce them, and some innovator would figure out how to make them better and cheaper (and still charge the same retail price and make him/herself richer) and with the innovations, there would be more competition, and other improvements would come about and soon, instead of being generally cost in-effective,increased competition would lead to lower prices. soon solar panels would be as common as cell phones!

right now, we (in US) have so many generators, and so much invested in land lines for providing electricity by wire... there is very little effort to make solar panels.. but if some one did a bit of work, places that do not have the pre existing infrastructure would snap up the technology..

cell phone took off in europe and former USSR-- they did not have the same level of infrastructure.. and there was a pent up demand for phone service.. here, in US, cel phone use lagged.. but we have great land service and a 3 day wait for a land line is unusual.. (but i understand that 3 week or 3 months or even 3 years waits for a land line not uncommon in countries as advanced as Netherlands before cell service and for less developed countries, waits for land lines stretched to decades!)

i see an increased need for portable technology.. and batteries are just not going to cut it.. there is a growing need for some way to keep all the portable technology running.. with out tons of batteries.. so soon, there will be a solution... at first, it will be more expensive than batteries.. but as more and more users buy into the technology, it will become cheaper, and more effecient!
(well that my take on the future..!)


#75911 07/12/02 11:38 PM
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part of seeing the future, is seeing what will be a problem in the near future, and then anticapating how the problem will be dealt with..


One of my professors is convinced that there will soon be a severe fresh water shortage, and tells us that we should start investing in desalinization plants now. I think he may have a point-- my father just mentioned this evening that when his family moved here in 1961, the creek on our property used to be nine feet deep near the bridge. It's down to two or three now... We're not sure why the water level has decreased so much since then, but I think it may be due to increased demand. There have been a lot of new houses going up in our area lately.



#75912 07/12/02 11:56 PM
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yes, fresh water, and clean water is a growing need.. desalination is one solution

other might include better use of grey water (say the water from your washing maching and sink, (but not the toilet)-- using grey water to water lawns. (again, here is where our exist infrastructure make it harder for most cities/urban areas, to do this.. places with out already existing sewers can build this new technology in..)

but other solutions might include waterless technology for common things.. water is great for washing cloths.. but is there a better way? maybe sonic waves.. or super absorbient matterials to absorb body oils from clothes..

or just change to front loading washers.. (so maybe investing in Maytag will be just as effective)

the earth is over 70% water, but only about 4% of it is fresh water at any given time! thank goodness the earth is already adapt at recycling salt water into fresh!


#75913 07/13/02 07:15 AM
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That's odd, TEd. I could have sworn that a moonroof was a special adaptation to a lowrider designed so that people could stick their bare asses out at the passers-by with the minimum of fuss ...



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