The way we always said it was

Heads up you'll have good luck;
Heads down you'll wear a frown

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If it lands on the edge I'll keep talking to you...

Ouch. Then again, I've seen it happen. I guess the possibilities all depend on how hard, and from how high, you toss the coin.

As for Waits, he's wonderful, isn't he? The imagery, the bitterness tempered with hope--

Now I'm smoking cigarettes and I strive for purity,
And I slip just like the stars into obscurity.
'Cause every time I hear that melody, well, puts me up a tree,
And the grapefruit moon, one star shining, is all that I can see.

Good stuff