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old hand
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As a gambler, I work on hunches (unless playing blackjack!) so I would probably stick to my first choice - my hunch, which was good enough for me at 25:1, must be even better at evens! Now, I only have one chance of being wrong.
And you still cannot be sure of my sex - of the eleven people attending my local GA group, five are women.
I'm immortal until proven otherwise
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Joined: Oct 2010
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Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,245 Likes: 6 |
There was a 4% chance that your choice (box #7) was right. You haven't changed your choice, and the people in boxes #7 and #8 haven't moved, so there is still only a 4% chance that your choice is right. Since the woman is either in box #7 or box #8, there must therefore be a 96% chance that she is in box #8. So you should definitely change to box #8!
Here is another way of looking at it. You chose box #7 at random. However, if you were wrong (which you almost certainly were), the gameshow host chose box #8 knowing that it was right. So box #8 is almost certainly right.
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Joined: Jun 2000
Posts: 724
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*** I had written some long winded silly (as usual) reasoning, which was all wrong. I am deleting it. I am sorry about this. ***
Last edited by Avy; 10/09/12 12:11 PM.
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veteran
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veteran
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No need to apologize, Ivy, this discussion is only an interlude until someone can make a rhyme. AC, I say "yes". Always switch your one in twenty-five to your fifty-fifty choice. EXCEPT: Ask yourself what are the odds of the right box being directly on either side of your #7 ? One in twelve, right? Pretty high odds so your boxmaster might (if he thinks you are bright) try to trick you into a switch from your #7 by placing a man's box next to the woman's number. [Maybe that's what you said but I am confused by your math]  And Wofahulic, you are right, the beautiful woman with a flaw is Hillary Clinton who insisted she be called "beautiful" and lied when she said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary. Nice trick. Hillary Rodam Clinton was born in 1947 and Sir Edmund climbed Everest in 1953. Which brings us to our Hilary. Either me, or Rubarb, is trying to find his or her sex nitch. Ok, Rube, answer this question: Are you a woman?  You show me yours and I'll show you mine. 
Last edited by jenny jenny; 10/10/12 12:36 AM.
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Joined: May 2010
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How to say this and still be discreet?
The words that you offer repeat
The ones that you chose
Only six months ago,
So: Disclaimer: Does not mean I cheat!
GELATO – GENERATION
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,245 Likes: 6
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,245 Likes: 6 |
A restaurant topped its gelato
With a small heart-shaped slice of tomato*.
It called its creation
"The Love Generation",
And served it with sparkling rosato.
*British pronunciation.
NOSE – NOTHINGNESS
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She tended to turn up her nose
At fashions that failed to disclose.
She elected to dress
In sheer nothingness,
Despite the fact bits of her froze.
OCTUPLET – OFF
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Joined: Nov 2011
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Well, that sets the imagination running. Just a second while I take my tablets ..................
Nice one, Trombo!
I'm immortal until proven otherwise
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Joined: May 2010
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Thanks, Rhuby. Suddenly realized I started us rolling with nothing in the subject line. By the time I tried to fix it it was too late. Something like…"She's Way Cool!"
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,706
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,706 |
All good here...of course. Anu might make them into a book  And Peter...you could edit your work and add 'She's Way Cool' as title...if you wanted too.
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