>And I'll bet ten bucks that I can pick out one of the two

let's see... he's got (raw odds) two chances out of eleven on the first try, and if he misses that he's left with two chances out of ten on the second guess. that's 2/11 + 2/10 = 42/110 for about 40%, and he's laying even odds.

not much of a gamble for an "initiate" on what's nearly a coin flip.

-joe (play the pot odds) friday