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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13,803 |
Quote:
This concept as set out in the game example is just B unk S ee, did not really put what you expected So what if the odds become 50:50 by showing one of the wrong doors? That is not going to change which door is the 'one', even if you were "more likely to be wrong on the first pick". Picking the same one again still has 50% chance, but the act of choosing has some mysterious power over the hidden result? B uffoonery .
The whole point is the odds aren't 50-50. As tsuwm pointed out, they stay 1 in 3 for the first door you picked. Then you must proceed to ignore where he said:
Quote:
but the remaining door obviously has odds of one in two of being right!!
since it obviously has odds of two in three of being right.
As to Milo's fair damsel, my prediction is that she will mate with all three in whatever order they choose. The joke is on them, though, since recent studies indicate that the last guy is the most likely to have offspring as a result of the encounter.
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