#75894
07/12/2002 3:00 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
Ayleurs old and new, Is there a word for the tendency, when making predictions, to project the present into the future?I'll give a few examples here. Although they all come from the world of Science Fiction, I don't think that's the only area in which such a term would be useful: 1. Gerry Anderson's ( http://www.fanderson.org.uk/)television series. (a) Thunderbirds http://www.thunderbirdsonline.co.uk was produced in the 1960s, but set in 2020(ish). The look of the technology, but more especially the hairstyles and clothing adopted by the puppet stars, were very much 60s styles, albeit cutting-edge 60s styles. (b) UFO http://www.ufo-dvd.com/#Produced 1969, very daringly set in 1985! By this time we would all be driving De Lorean style "gull-wing door" cars that sounded jet propelled, but we'd still have early 70s clothes and hairstyles (slightly Chairman Mao suits for Earthlings, as I recall, silver one-piece jobs for people on the Moonbase). Unlike Thunderbirds, UFO used real live actors, which made the dated styles even more obvious. What I find most entertaining about UFO now is the idea that roads could actually be less busy in 15 years time  In fact I don't reckon much of Gerry Anderson's stuff has aged well. The hardware looks good, and most of these programs are (great) fun to watch, but the blatant projection of the then-present into the future is striking, and occasionally ridiculous. 2. H.G.Wells, Jules Verne, Arthur C. Clarke. OK, I know it's unfair to compare TV programs with books, but I'm making a point. All of these authors have, one way or another, been called prophetic - in other words they didn't project their present into the future as Gerry Anderson did, or at least they did so in a more selective manner. Jules Verne is credited with predicting submarines, H.G. Wells with predicting (errrm) global organisations like the UN (surely something else?..), Clarke with predicting communications satellites. I realise that we can only really judge how much people are projecting the present in retrospect; but this doesn't stop us assessing someone's powers of prediction in advance (predicting powers of prediction?  ) Just think about investments or racing tipsters. However, it's very specifically the tendency to project the present into the future that I'm talking about here, not simply being a poor prophet. Gerry Anderson is more ?eh? than Arthur C.Clarke Arthur C.Clarke is not prone to ?eh?If there isn't a word for ?eh? then perhaps we could invent one... FiskP.S. I predict that I will need to explain myself better here. Quick check on my own ?eh? factor.
|
|
|
#75895
07/12/2002 3:34 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 10,542 |
I don't know about tendencies, shona, but this sounds a whole lot like the "science" of futurology, which deals with the projecting of current trends into future possibilities.
; )
|
|
|
#75896
07/12/2002 4:09 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400 |
it is also a failure of imagination.. computer are prime example.. even though they were known in the 1940 and 1950, no one ever imaginged they would shrink in size, and become universally available.. (to any one who has money)
many science fiction writers of the 40's and 50's envision computers as tool that are only available in giant companies, governments, and universities, very few thought that they would be come everday tools, and small enought to fit in a pocket! Today's Palm pilots do more than enniac, faster, cheaper, with 1/10,000 of the space and energy requirements!
one of my father's "greenhorn" stories about coming to america is about his choice to fly to US.. in 1948, flying was so expensive and exotic, he thought, this is going to be my one and only opportunity in my lifetime to take an airplain... and i'm doing it!
i first flew in 1960, and by the late 1980's, my parents has so many airmiles, they flew to alaska free! so in my fathers lifetime, flying has gone from a once in a life time type experience to a normal mode of travel..but he failed to see that possiblity! and he is not alone..
improvement to engines, and economies of scale have made airtravel everyday..
my personal view of the next big innovation? transdermal electrical rechargers.. so batteries will be come obsolete.
we will charge our phones, our portable CD, our beepers just by walking and talking. and we will use even more electronic gadgets, because keeping them charged will be easier!
|
|
|
#75897
07/12/2002 4:15 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,526
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,526 |
Verne also wrote a story called "From the Earth to the Moon." It was a little prophetic, but he did project the current into the future. If I recall correctly, his "spaceship" was a projectile lobbed from a big gun.
I think prophetic is commonly used in this case. Is it that you believe the term has more of a mystical flavor and less of a "reasonable inference" flavor?
k
|
|
|
#75898
07/12/2002 4:26 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
I think prophetic is commonly used in this case. Is it that you believe the term has more of a mystical flavor and less of a "reasonable inference" flavor?Not quite, FF - it's more about the quality of the prophecy. And the same applies to futurology tsuwm. It's like some people are prone to make predictions which are essentially on a straight line from the present, with no surprises or quantum leaps. Reality never works like that, of course. I suppose if futurology is taken as "straight line prediction" and prophecy as fairly accurate "quantum leap" prediction, you could say Arthur C Clarke is more prophet than futurologistor Gerry Anderson takes a futurological approach to his storiesHmmm.  I suppose I'm looking for a word for the tendency to straight line prediction, to put it another way. I thought this would make my brain hurt
|
|
|
#75899
07/12/2002 4:29 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,526
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,526 |
my personal view of the next big innovation? transdermal electrical rechargers.. so batteries will be come obsolete.
we will charge our phones, our portable CD, our beepers just by walking and talking. and we will use even more electronic gadgets, because keeping them charged will be easier!
I so hope you're right on this. This carrying an extra battery business is far too irritating. It seems like such a natural extension, too. Maybe it would encourage Americans to be less lazy (I know I need all the encouragement I can get). [Frankly, though, we need to think of town designs that make it easier to walk and ride bikes, etc.]
I think Dr Seuss is going to end up being prophetic and that the days of GATTACA are not far away - and no laws can stop it. (No, I'm not being funny. I'm serious.) First stop genetic defects, then on to designer babies, then after-the-fact mods like breast augmentation, penis enlargement, no more male pattern baldness, etc. Then we'll have Sneetches, people striving to be like those who are considered their betters. Scary thing to me is designer germs (Ray Kurzweil writes about it in "The Age of Spiritual Machines" -- seems extremely far-fetched, but this guy seriously knows his stuff, so I'm reluctant to categorize him as a loon.) Imagine we take a highly infectious disease and make it hard to kill. (Seems *really* possible now with the recent news of the synthesized polio bug.)
k
|
|
|
#75900
07/12/2002 4:42 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
it is also a failure of imaginationYou ain't kidding, Helen! No one could have envisaged how big the Web would get. Even Microsoft, techy of techies, utterly failed and had to run to catch up. Having said that, apparently Pete Townshend of The Who envisaged something similar in his proposed musical Lifehouse, started in 1971 http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/entertainment/newsid_403000/403916.stmAnd on the other hand, the business prophets were wrong about the supposed rush to get WAP phones http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_942000/942808.stm - and paid dearly for their mistake! The latter is an example of a straight line prediction - "the Web is big, mobile phones are big, so the Web via mobile phones will be big". The former is an inspired prediction, that didn't depend upon the existence of anything like what was being predicted at the time of prediction. There's the distinction I'm trying to make, put another way (keep trying, Fish  )
|
|
|
#75901
07/12/2002 5:59 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400 |
what we are talking about is a paradigm shift... this is a place were the word has a real meaning..
Xerox -- was one.. the Head of the old Haliod company saw that there was a real need for a tool that no one had ever seen before.. a quick, cheap copier..
being able to see, that a technology fills a need that people don't even know that they have is a gift..
i personly know, that several years ago, i thought a moon roof (windows on the roof a car that could open) the stupidest thing.. (and presumed it would be prone to leaking.. then i bought a used car, and it had one.. now, i wouldn't think of buying a car with out one! I love it!
Clikers (remote controlers) are an other one of those, i never knew i needed till i had one things.. i don't have garbage disposal, and have use one at friends houses, and have no desire to have one..
ATM's too, who imagined how they would change the world?
some changes are incremental, tapes recording to tape cassets, to digital recording to CD, to DVD's... but the leap to recorded music and from there to tapes.. were major shifts..
|
|
|
#75902
07/12/2002 7:12 PM
|
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387
enthusiast
|
|
enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387 |
Okay, wait. Moon roofs? Moon roofs? I'd never thought of them as being used to let in the Moon!
Is it just people around my area calling them sun roofs?
|
|
|
#75903
07/12/2002 7:56 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,467
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,467 |
Moonroof and sunroof are two different things. The moonroof in my wife's Cherokee has an opaque hand-operated sliding roof that opens to reveal a glass roof above it which may then be moved or left closed.
A sunroof is an opaque moonroof without the secondary roof below it.
TEd
|
|
|
#75904
07/12/2002 7:59 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400 |
i have heard them called both moon and sun roofs..
i haven't figured out the difference, but my car manual refers to it as a moon roof..
i can shut it and cover it up (inside the car) so it looks like a solid ceiling..
i can tilt it up (with the ceiling panel in place, and have it vent, with out any light coming in) i can tilt it up with the ceiling panel slid out of the way (and have a glass roof, tilted open, or i can open it... and have a big hole in the ceiling.. (all with the touch of a button or two..)
|
|
|
#75905
07/12/2002 8:37 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
A sunroof is an opaque moonroof without the secondary roof below it
I understand the difference now thanks, TEd, but us simplistic Brits don't specify that difference, and call them both "sunroofs". I suppose "moonroof" implies something you may have open at night, and there are so few occasions you'd want that given our climate [rueful smile]
|
|
|
#75906
07/12/2002 8:56 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
a paradigm shift..being able to see, that a technology fills a need that people don't even know that they haveIs this the difference between invention and innovation? I've never quite been clear on that one. Paradigm shifts were first described by Kuhn (nice summary of his viewpoint here: http://cgi.student.nada.kth.se/cgi-bin/d95-aeh/get/kuhneng) the term used in relation to "scientific revolutions" i.e. the old ways take a lot of shifting, and the history books get rewritten afterwards so that it looks like the revolutionary development was a natural conclusion of what was happening already. I found his book enlightening and refreshingly honest; rationality doesn't really rule the roost, and the tree needs shaking from time to time. But but - we're still no closer to a word for people who can (or can't) make a kind of paradigm shift in their predictions, allowing for revolution(s) to come. It's a real skill to be able to discard the (recorded) past and present when looking ahead, so surely there should be a word for it! I think I may try to invent one
|
|
|
#75907
07/12/2002 9:36 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 475
addict
|
|
addict
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 475 |
ever heard of psychohistory?
|
|
|
#75908
07/12/2002 9:53 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
psychohistory?As in Asimov's Foundation series? Yup. I think that's what tsuwm's futurology aspires to be - a scientific prediction of trends, and some significant specifics. Asimov's hero (Hari Seldon, was it?) was a bit of a superhero, though - he allowed for everything in his predictions, eh?
|
|
|
#75909
07/12/2002 10:24 PM
|
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387
enthusiast
|
|
enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387 |
In reply to:
Asimov's hero (Hari Seldon, was it?) was a bit of a superhero, though - he allowed for everything in his predictions, eh?
Not mutations. That's why the Mule caused so much trouble.
|
|
|
#75910
07/12/2002 10:57 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400 |
part of seeing the future, is seeing what will be a problem in the near future, and then anticapating how the problem will be dealt with..
Malthus saw population out stripping production of food, and saw only a famine.. Darwin saw other possiblities.. such as increases in food productions..(he looked backward, to be sure, but he saw the past as an indication of the future) famine was only one possiblity...
sure enough, soon, man had learned how to remove nitogen from the air, instead of being dependant on guano, and food production increased, no famine..
or as an other example, electronic's grew during WWII, the sheer weight of the wiring was becoming a factor in building planes.. there needed to be a better way to wire components.. first step was introductions of circut boards.. and they lead--to transistors --as scientist/engineers saw a new way of making circuts... and the idea of flat wires-, and that idea plus new product technology lead first to transistors and from there to chips!
which actually lead to planes being better equipped, and weighing less.. so the expensive technology of 1947 (the year my father immegrated..) was soon replaced with lighter faster planes, that could carry more payload, and resulted in cheaper costs to consumers.. and so 40 years later, he had flown over 100,000 in less than 3 years, and qualified for a free flight to alaska!
what problems is looming now for the world? can some of the political problems of the mid east vs modern world find new solutions?
In modern (western) countries, muslims embrace technology.. one specialize gizmo that sells well in NY is a program for a sharp/franklin (and other PDA's)-- that is programed to provide reminders to the devout when they should pray (since the , the, (the guy who calls all the devout muslems to pray from the mineret) is not a common site on NY street corners. )
what other problems are looming? polutions? energy? resourses like fresh water? what technology exist to solve these problems? and if the technology doesn't exist.. it will be invented
last year, when California was having an energy crisis, it was pointed out, it would be cheaper for the state to buy every household solar panals than to continue subsidizing energy producers.. problem was, there weren't enough solar panals in the world.. but if the state goverment made it a plan, and there would now a huge market for panels, more people would produce them, and some innovator would figure out how to make them better and cheaper (and still charge the same retail price and make him/herself richer) and with the innovations, there would be more competition, and other improvements would come about and soon, instead of being generally cost in-effective,increased competition would lead to lower prices. soon solar panels would be as common as cell phones!
right now, we (in US) have so many generators, and so much invested in land lines for providing electricity by wire... there is very little effort to make solar panels.. but if some one did a bit of work, places that do not have the pre existing infrastructure would snap up the technology..
cell phone took off in europe and former USSR-- they did not have the same level of infrastructure.. and there was a pent up demand for phone service.. here, in US, cel phone use lagged.. but we have great land service and a 3 day wait for a land line is unusual.. (but i understand that 3 week or 3 months or even 3 years waits for a land line not uncommon in countries as advanced as Netherlands before cell service and for less developed countries, waits for land lines stretched to decades!)
i see an increased need for portable technology.. and batteries are just not going to cut it.. there is a growing need for some way to keep all the portable technology running.. with out tons of batteries.. so soon, there will be a solution... at first, it will be more expensive than batteries.. but as more and more users buy into the technology, it will become cheaper, and more effecient!
(well that my take on the future..!)
|
|
|
#75911
07/12/2002 11:38 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 328
enthusiast
|
|
enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 328 |
part of seeing the future, is seeing what will be a problem in the near future, and then anticapating how the problem will be dealt with..
One of my professors is convinced that there will soon be a severe fresh water shortage, and tells us that we should start investing in desalinization plants now. I think he may have a point-- my father just mentioned this evening that when his family moved here in 1961, the creek on our property used to be nine feet deep near the bridge. It's down to two or three now... We're not sure why the water level has decreased so much since then, but I think it may be due to increased demand. There have been a lot of new houses going up in our area lately.
|
|
|
#75912
07/12/2002 11:56 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 5,400 |
yes, fresh water, and clean water is a growing need.. desalination is one solution
other might include better use of grey water (say the water from your washing maching and sink, (but not the toilet)-- using grey water to water lawns. (again, here is where our exist infrastructure make it harder for most cities/urban areas, to do this.. places with out already existing sewers can build this new technology in..)
but other solutions might include waterless technology for common things.. water is great for washing cloths.. but is there a better way? maybe sonic waves.. or super absorbient matterials to absorb body oils from clothes..
or just change to front loading washers.. (so maybe investing in Maytag will be just as effective)
the earth is over 70% water, but only about 4% of it is fresh water at any given time! thank goodness the earth is already adapt at recycling salt water into fresh!
|
|
|
#75913
07/13/2002 7:15 AM
|
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,146
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,146 |
That's odd, TEd. I could have sworn that a moonroof was a special adaptation to a lowrider designed so that people could stick their bare asses out at the passers-by with the minimum of fuss ... 
The idiot also known as Capfka ...
|
|
|
#75914
07/13/2002 7:29 AM
|
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,146
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,146 |
There's the distinction I'm trying to make, put another way (keep trying, Fish )
I don't think there's a word for this, shona. For my sins I used to review science fiction (amongst other types of fiction) for the newspaper I worked for. There was some extremely dire sci-fi being produced in the 1970s. It was a bit like nearly all of the good plots had already been used and those that hadn't been had been grabbed up by Star Trek's script writers. Most of the books I read were simply recycling others' earlier ideas, usually badly expressed and written - which is, in my book, an even worse crime!
When it comes to film, it's easy to confuse bad special effects with the failure of imagination mentioned by others here. Remember Buck Rogers? And while the original Star Trek series uniforms were probably not simply a product of projection of their times, so to speak, the series production values were and they haven't dated very well either. I'm beginning to notice the same issue with Star Trek NG as well.
Yet consider the Alien movie series as a complete contrast. The clothes weren't all that way-out, but neither were they today's or yesterday's fashions recycled (no skintight catsuits) and the Nostramo sets were "timeless", i.e. they were understated but definitely "different" to anything current or past. And, of course, Ridley Scott commissioned an artist/sculptor to come up with the alien creature and alien architecture which won't date at all until someone actually finds some of the real deal. The only thing that disappointed me about the alien was that withall it was still bilaterally symmetrical, thus imposing earthly evolution on all of creation by implication!
Enough rabbiting. Great thread. Keep away from the desalination/fresh water stuff!
The idiot also known as Capfka ...
|
|
|
#75915
07/13/2002 1:25 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,467
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,467 |
Shona:
I'm sorry to get in towards the end of this, but I plead a bad week.
I'm a bit surprised that no one's mentioned it, but the word you are looking for may be futurist. I googled that and the first entry is about a World Future Society. It's got a lot of interesting stuff there. When I think of futurist, two people come immediately to mind: Bucky Fuller and Alvin Toffler.
The latter is far more readable, but Fuller is probably the more influential. He and his friend G. O. Desicdome helped shape the future of our world. One of his omre interesting concepts is an umbrellaed city (not domed and sealed, just umbrellaed) that is designed to make the most out of as little as possible. Influenced, I'm sure by Frank Wright, but an order or two of magnitude greater in the grandiosity of his plans.
I can't remember the name of the last book I read by Fuller, but it was damned near impossible for a person of normal intellect like me to get through. Marianas deep.
TEd
TEd
|
|
|
#75916
07/14/2002 9:42 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
>>Asimov's hero ...allowed for everything in his predictions, eh?
Not mutations. That's why the Mule caused so much trouble.
Ah yes. Been a good while since I read the series, jim.
Hari Seldon got it right in the end, though, despite the Mule. Am I remembering correctly?
|
|
|
#75917
07/14/2002 10:00 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
I plead a bad weekCondolences, TEd - mine was the week before  the word you are looking for may be futuristAre futurists people who do "futurology", as mentioned by tsuwm? Or would those be "futurologists"? I've read Toffler, and was especially impressed by The Third Wave. I'm not sure that Futureshock has come to pass, though. People actually handle an incredible rate of change better than Toffler expected; and it's also never the case that everything changes, so maybe the demands aren't that great. I suppose I'd see Toffler as more of a "straight line" futurist, projecting the past into the present then following that line into the future. I don't know about Buckminster Fuller, but get the impression that he's more quirky and occasionally brilliant . More of a (errm, still trying to get the words) "revolutionary" futurist, happy to take major leaps on the basis of proto-seedlings (whaat?) If my impression of Fuller is correct, I'm trying to get a word for something that Fuller does better than Toffler. My brain hurts.
|
|
|
#75918
07/14/2002 10:10 PM
|
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210 |
Fuller had the ability to turn his futurist thinking into something practical; the geodesic dome, his car which is still too far ahead of it's time, and other concepts which will percolate into the human psyche in some distant future. one of the most profound thinker-doers that has ever lived, on a par with Da Vinci.
Toffler, though brilliant, just gives us things to wonder about.
formerly known as etaoin...
|
|
|
#75919
07/14/2002 10:15 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
I don't think there's a word for this, shonaI'm starting to think you're right Cap. Shall we invent one? I used to review science fictionYou poor, poor sod! Hope it paid well. Star Trek ...production values ...haven't dated very well eitherYeah. But I reckon the hardware in Star Trek ain't bad, really. Everything's small and neat, which wasn't necessarily predictable at that time. Sure is now. I heard that Gene Roddenberry was obliged to introduce the transporter (and thus portable kit, I suppose) because they didn't have money/time to do a landing vehicle. If so, that's real serendipity. the Alien movie series as a complete contrastI'd certainly agree with you there, Cap. Ridley Scott's made a bit of a speciality of creating plausible visual futures. Perhaps it's crucial that everything is "lived in". So... Ridley Scott is a "plausible futurist", not prone to "straight-line futurism" ?? Yuk.
|
|
|
#75920
07/14/2002 10:33 PM
|
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210 |
before I start really wracking my brain to come up with a new word, a question:
is there a negative connotation to the concept of "straight-line" futurism? it seems a bit like there is; that if we're going to predict the future accurately we have to get past the present paradigm into something different, therefore the straight-line stuff doesn't really get us there.
yes?
no?
I suppose it also makes a difference how far onto the future we're aiming...
formerly known as etaoin...
|
|
|
#75921
07/14/2002 10:51 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
is there a negative connotation to the concept of "straight-line" futurism?
Well, eta, I feel there is, but that may just be personal taste. "Straight-line" (linear?) futurism probably works well enough in the short-term and within a limited range. Maybe it's a bit like Newtonian and Einsteinian physics being able to coexist quite happily, each being more useful in certain situations (think I'm correct there, but I'm no physicist)...
|
|
|
#75922
07/14/2002 11:03 PM
|
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210
Carpal Tunnel
|
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 7,210 |
what about "futurecaster"?
a bit unwieldy, but describes the idea pretty well.
I'll keep thinking...
formerly known as etaoin...
|
|
|
#75923
07/14/2002 11:07 PM
|
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387
enthusiast
|
|
enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 387 |
In reply to:
Hari Seldon got it right in the end, though, despite the Mule. Am I remembering correctly?
The 2nd Foundationers got to stick their nose in after the war with the Mule.
|
|
|
#75924
07/15/2002 2:22 AM
|
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 771
old hand
|
|
old hand
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 771 |
Maybe this is understating the question entirely, but how does visionary feel? It at least encompasses *some* of the aspects you're getting at... <shrug>
|
|
|
#75925
07/15/2002 2:33 AM
|
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 872
old hand
|
|
old hand
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 872 |
Way to go Pedalfish, you've asked we good people to supply a name for a concept that will jell once a name is given. Kinda like having the outboard motor in the front of the boat. Well Fishpedal, thats no hill for a stepper. Dig these... Da ja vu, da ja va, oui? or maybe something more catchy like... futurecalilisticallidosis. Get real. Build us a proper stadium and we, the world, will come. - -
|
|
|
#75926
07/15/2002 8:44 AM
|
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 679
addict
|
|
addict
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 679 |
(a)Thunderbirds http://www.thunderbirdsonline.co.uk was produced in the 1960s, but set in 2020(ish). The look of the technology, but more especially the hairstyles and clothing adopted by the puppet stars, were very much 60s styles, albeit cutting-edge 60s styles.Don't forget the music, FoaB! Who can forget those old classics Captain Scarlet! Captain Scarlet! and Marina, Aqua Marina [Pass the sick-bag emoticon]
Produced 1969, very daringly set in 1985!
but we'd still have early 70s clothes and hairstyles but, but I did! [flared trousers emoticon] Unlike Thunderbirds, UFO used real live actors, which made the dated styles even more obvious. What I find most entertaining about UFO now is the idea that roads could actually be less busy in 15 years timeThat's because everyone would have achieved Utopia and would be swanning at home being looked after by their robot servants (probably). One thing I always remember about Space:1999 is the date when the Moon separated from the Earth - September 13th 1999 - because it appeared at the beginning of every episode. That day I had just gone for an interview and went into work straight after. When I asked anyone if they knew the significance of the date they shrugged and shook their heads. Then, when I told them Space:1999 all the thirty-somethings' heads turned and lit up. Everyone knew the date but had almost forgotten it after almost 15 years.
|
|
|
#75927
07/15/2002 10:16 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
you've asked we good people to supply a name for a concept that will jell once a name is givenWell yes, milum - but minor little niceties like that never stopped us before. Reminds me for some reason of RD Laing's "poem" in Knots about the finger and the moon: http://www.oikos.org/knots7.htmfuturecalilisticallidosis This would, of course, be the pathological - often chronic - condition whereby the sufferer believes the future must be the same as the present. A classic example: "I have bad breath now, therefore I will always have bad breath" Or am I confusing it with "futurecalilisti halitosis"?
|
|
|
#75928
07/15/2002 10:28 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
Don't forget the music, FoaB!Oh yes. Captain Scarlet also had the best lyrics ever: They crash him, and his body may burn.
They smash him, but they know he'll return,
To live again.http://time-screen.freeyellow.com/scelyr.htm>>daringly set in 1985!..but we'd still have early 70s clothes and hairstyles
but, but I did! [flared trousers emoticon] Umm, yeah, me too, come to think of it.  September 13th 1999Like your colleagues, I remember the date now you come to mention it. The Moon getting blown out of orbit provides a brilliant apocalyptic scenario, doesn't it? I suppose there was a bit of an environmental warning there, too, as the chain reaction and explosion was caused by the storage of huge amounts of radioactive waste on the Dark Side of the Moon. "Everything under the Sun is in tune But the Sun is eclipsed by the Moo-oon.."
|
|
|
#75929
07/15/2002 10:38 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
how does visionary feel? Actually I was starting to think "visionary" goes very much in the right direction myself, FB.  Maybe we'd contrast visionaries (dynamic/dramatic/non-linear predictions) with futurologists (linear predictions)? What would be the opposite of "linear"? Perhaps this could be tied in with Chaos Theory, where you get past a certain quantitative value and there is a qualitative change, i.e. it's more like changing over to a different graph/formula than following the same formula. (At this rate I'll get a chance to incorporate all of my interests in this thread )
|
|
|
#75930
07/15/2002 10:45 AM
|
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,379
Pooh-Bah
|
|
Pooh-Bah
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,379 |
<<From Earth to Moon>>
I have read that the gun Verne describes is essentially a technology that has since been developed, and is called a "rail gun." It involves a pair of charged parallel rods the projectile is hurled by plasma. This overcomes the barrier of maximum velocity to which gas expanding in a tube can excellerate, something like 20,000 mph. This, however, is another 'fact' retrieved from boyhood memory.
As to your original question, what is "futurism." (sorry, no time to look)
|
|
|
#75931
07/15/2002 11:20 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
what is "futurism"Ah - Futurism per se hasn't been mentioned yet, Peter , but now you come to mention it: http://www.futurism.org.uk/(It's an art movement with political aspects, for those who can't be bothered with clicking the link) Argh - does this mean that we shouldn't talk about people like Alvin Toffler and Buckminster Fuller as "futurists" (or rather "Futurists") ? I think "futurology" (a proponent of which would be a "futurologist"), as first mentioned by tsuwm, is something different again. More of a pseudo-science, but with the central tenet that it deals with future possibilities based on current trends.
|
|
|
#75932
07/15/2002 11:32 AM
|
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 1,624
Pooh-Bah
|
|
Pooh-Bah
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 1,624 |
Actually, I keep a copy of "Future Shock" on my bookshelf just to tell me what WON'T happen ... - Pfranz
|
|
|
#75933
07/15/2002 12:04 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346
veteran
|
|
veteran
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,346 |
just to tell me what WON'T happenRumour has it that Gerry Anderson was Bill Gates' technical advisor for The Road Ahead. Although another rumour has it that Bill Gates doesn't need any help on that front.
|
|
|
|
|
