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- And I quote http://www.theregister.co.uk: Hopes dashed for UK IT jobs recovery
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 24/02/2003 at 16:12 GMT
Hopes that the UK's IT jobs market might be making a recovery were dashed today following confirmation that the number of vacancies suffered their worst drop since the economic slowdown began 18 months ago.
We are talking about a job market?
The number of vacancies slumped 38 per cent in the last three months of 2002 according to the CWJobs UK Quarterly Regional IT Skills Index.
Yep, less vacancies.
It seems the dip has put an end to hopes for an early recovery in the IT jobs markets, especially after earlier figures suggested that the rate of decline was slowing down.
It sounds like people began filling the available positions.
The East Midlands was the worst hit region in Q4 2002, with the number of vacancies dropping by 45 per cent, closely followed by the West and Wales (43 per cent).
I know, I know... less hiring
Overall, all regions suffered a fall in available jobs with every part of the UK seeing over a third less IT jobs advertised than in Q3 2002.
It seems to be 'demand side' economics outweighing the 'supply side' here.[eg]
For the whole of 2002, the IT jobs market fell by 76 per cent. The Midlands suffered an 80 per cent fall in IT job vacancies while Central London racked up a 62 per cent decline in advertised IT vacancies.It truly sounds like a depressing scenario, and I'm sure it is... but the description may be playing a bit of statistical "shell game". I always thought that "more full", especially when dealing with social issues begets a better pespective all around.
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I'm with you, musick, but maybe it means fewer [sic] job offerings?
We shall await our cross-pondian friends to shed light.
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What is wrong with the way this article is written?? It's backwards somehow, but I can't seem to put my finger on it. The writer doesn't make himself clear to me until the very end: "...over a third less IT jobs advertised than in Q3 2002.
For the whole of 2002, the IT jobs market fell by 76 per cent. The Midlands suffered an 80 per cent fall in IT job vacancies while Central London racked up a 62 per cent decline in advertised IT vacancies."
How come he didn't say, for ex., that more IT positions are filled than in 2001? He could have said, then, that the IT business is therefore booming. Though given the article's title, I don't think that's the slant he wanted to put on the situation. To me (an outsider both culturally and IT-ally), if he had a point to make, he didn't make it. WAS he trying to say that the IT business is in great shape? If not, why bother to give the stats? He did make it clear that it's hard to get a job in IT in the UK, but. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I can't tell, really, from this piece. Are there thousands of qualified IT people who are starving because they can't get jobs? Is he trying to say that companies don't have enough IT people and should be hiring more but aren't? Grr.
I realize that my frustration may not be shared by other readers, particularly in the UK. I also realize that if the writer were specifically addressing an IT audience, his point(s) would no doubt have been perfectly clear to that group. But as far as I know, the Register is not an IT-targeted publication.
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What's wrong with this article is that it's completely misleading. Let me analyse....
Hopes that the UK's IT jobs market might be making a recovery were dashed today following confirmation that the number of vacancies suffered their worst drop since the economic slowdown began 18 months ago.
How can vacancies drop? There are two possible answers.
1. People are losing their jobs and there are no new ones for them to fill.
2. People are not losing their jobs but new graduates are finding that there are few or no vacancies available.
The slowdown started 18 months ago but during what time period did the "worst drop" occur? Last week? last month? Was it getting progressively worse? Or was it actually improving and then just suddenly slumped. The last would actually indicate a rise in jobs in the IT section.
Example. Slowdown starts. IT jobs vacancies are at 7% above demand. Nobody to fill them cos they all have jobs. New recruits sought from abroad and from 3rd level. Most jobs filled. Vacancies drop to 3%. This is a "drop" in vacancies but it can't be construed as a negative one because jobs are being filled. The fact that there are vacancies at all implies that the job market is still healthy.
The number of vacancies slumped 38 per cent in the last three months of 2002 according to the CWJobs UK Quarterly Regional IT Skills Index.
This is bullshit. The word "slumped" implies that there is a crisis. Not so. It really means that the market has peaked and that there are fewer jobs than there were at the start of the rising economy. And 38% in the last three months? 38% of what? Does it mean that there are 38% less ads in the paper? Or 38% less jobs available? Or does it mean that 38% of jobs have been lost? This can beconstrued two ways although the figure above is used in the negative sense:
1. 38% less vacancies. Jobs are few.
2. 38% more jobs filled and unemployment is lower.
The first case could imply that the market demands a consistently high level of vacancies to encourage confidence and to keep the market healthy. The second case implies that the employment level is higher and that the available vacancies are becoming more specialised and localised. Not necessarily a bad thing.
It seems the dip has put an end to hopes for an early recovery in the IT jobs markets, especially after earlier figures suggested that the rate of decline was slowing down. It sounds like people began filling the available positions.
The East Midlands was the worst hit region in Q4 2002, with the number of vacancies dropping by 45 per cent, closely followed by the West and Wales (43 per cent).
Bullshit again. They are using the figures for less vacancies to imply that unemployment is increasing. These figures are useless if not used in that context. If vacancies are dropping by 43% but people are still getting jobs without becoming unemployed then what's the problem?
At least he admits that people are filling the available positions.
Overall, all regions suffered a fall in available jobs with every part of the UK seeing over a third less IT jobs advertised than in Q3 2002.
This is what's called a glut. IT should be discouraged as a subject and the supply of other in-demand skills should be taught in Universities and colleges. It's the way it's always been done.
There are jobs there but not if new graduates are continually churned out.
For the whole of 2002, the IT jobs market fell by 76 per cent. The Midlands suffered an 80 per cent fall in IT job vacancies while Central London racked up a 62 per cent decline in advertised IT vacancies.
This is playing with numbers. IT jobs market falls by 76 per cent. Nationally? But 76% of what? The figure last year? The usual amount of job vacancies you find in the Sunday newspapers? It's an empty figure and makes no sense without a comparison.
It's an interesting observation that most people take statistics at face value without actually questioning what they really mean or imply. If things were really that bad in IT in Europe then why don't we hear of mass unemployment? Because it is all bullshit. You can play with figures and percentages and get them to mean anything you want. For example, if you have five large IT companies who employ 10,000 each and then you have 45 unstable dot coms which employ five geeks each and those 45 fail within the year then you could statistically say that 90% of computer companies failed during the past year and you would be inclined to believe that the IT business was in dire straits whereas only 225 damned fools would be out of work and 50,000 people's jobs were secure. The statistic doesn't do much for your confidence but the real story speaks louder.
I'd like to know in which areas the statistical falls are taking place. Are small companies failing quicker whilst multi-nationals are recuriting? And are they failing quicker than those larger companies can recruit? That would be one way to explain the fall. There are probably more than a thousand other explanations. One thing is for sure - the IT market is still strong enough to employ.
When I was doing my degree in the 90s one of my subjects was statistics and the first thing we were taught was how to gather and display information correctly. If it isn't done so then it can be misleading. You can also lie using statistics and twist the information to show the opposite of what it was intended to depict. Not difficult when you look at the above article which I completely disagree with.
My bible for that class was the following which is a short and readable book I'd recommend to anyone who doesn't want to get fooled by opinion polls again.
AUTHOR :Huff, Darrell
Calman, Mel
TITLE :How to lie with statistics / [by] Darrell Huff ; with pictures
by Mel Calman.
IMPRINT :Harmondsworth : Penguin, 1973.
COLLATION :124p. : ill., maps ; 19cm.
SUBJECT :Statistics
SERIES-Title :Pelican books
GENERAL NOTE :Originally published, London: Gollancz, 1954.
ISBN / ISSN :0140213007 (Pbk) :
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The number of vacancies slumped 38 per cent in the last three months of 2002 according to the CWJobs UK Quarterly Regional IT Skills Index.
Yep, less vacancies.
It seems the dip has put an end to hopes for an early recovery in the IT jobs markets, especially after earlier figures suggested that the rate of decline was slowing down.
It sounds like people began filling the available positions.
It reads to me like a comment on the appalling conditions as regards employment in the IT sector.
Vacancies, is an indicator of the number of jobs available
Decline in vacancies, suggests fewer jobs than before
Rate of decline slowing down, implies that the curve is not plunging downward anymore but is attemtpting to flatten out. In job terms, the number of available jobs decreased steadily from 10 to 8 to 6 to 4 and then tremulously clung on at 4 for a bit longer, before plunging further to 2. That brief plateau at 4 does not mean they were hiring more people; they stopped firing and closing out previously existing positions.
The article doesn't specify which aspect of IT the statistics pertain to, but one other reason for the bloodbath in the IT sector, apart from the dot com bust, is that, an increasing number of corporations are outsourcing back office work, with a resulting decline in ITES(IT Enabled Services) jobs. NJ has already passed some kind of regulation to prevent this from escalating any further, I am told.
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they stopped firing and closing out previously existing positions.
Not once does it mention people losing their jobs. It just states that there are less new jobs available - i.e. that they are no longer expanding.
This is exactly what I was pointing out above - that the article is very misleading.
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This is exactly what I was pointing out above - that the article is very misleading.
Yep.
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POINT OF ORDER Rubrick - Sorry I wasn't less unclear  , but you may have misread one (or more) of my lines above. I quote you... At least he admits that people are filling the available positions.The blue coloured text is the direct quoting, the black coloured text is my version of Howard Cosel. ----------------- I agree, however.
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Musick, Honey, have you figured IT out yet?
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What a badly written article. I hope he wasn’t paid much for it. This may help: To an increasing extent, the number of people needed in UK IT industries is declining, however there are still vacancies. This may show that there is still a greater, if reduced, demand than supply or perhaps an increasing reduction in requirement for personnel with the old skills and a reducing increase in the need for those with new skills. The reduction in the increase would be due to the increasing ability of personnel to provide new skills, but of course this would reduce their availability for the decreasingly available positions possibly leading to a static but still hungry market. Clear? 
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