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Recent news stories reports that the UN inspectors have been unable to find any 'smoking guns' in Iraq. Now, I'm confused - I thought a smoking gun is a term to describe signs (in this case) of a weapon that has already been let off, but I thought they were searching for signs of weapons of mass destruction being made and developed, not used? Anyway, surely the first sign of the Iraqis using a weapon of that nature would be (heaven forbid) a large crater somewhere in Europe or America?? Is this just bad reporting/an over-eagerness by politicians and the press to trendy soundbytes and sensationalist reporting or are the UN team out to look for the wrong thing? (or have I just got the wrong end of the stick?!  )
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Dear bonzaialsatian: "smoking gun" is a metaphor meaning important circumstantial evidence.
A classic defintion of circumstantial evidence was given by Ralph Waldo Emerson, when he
told about a trout being found in a pail of milk being evidence that the farmer had added brook
water to the milk.
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Oh... so ANY evidence of the supposed weapons of mass destruction.
They seemed so darn dissapointed that nothing has been found so far - almost as if they (the US and UK governments) want (I know - not the best word to use) a war to go ahead, though I suppose this can lead to plenty of debate and speculation as well, not to mention the possibilities that Iraq really IS hiding WOMD, or the oil situation.
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I think the smoking gun phrase has been extended to mean not circumstantial but definitive evidence.
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This was a poor choice of words, considering what it was referring to. Yes, guns do smoke after being fired. And, as Faldage said, the meaning has been extended. As in, if you come into a room and find one person shot and another holding a smoking gun, you can assume that there is a very high likelihood that the person holding the gun was the shooter. After all, the smoke has not dissipated, so the gun has been fired within the preceding few seconds. It is unlikely that a third person would have been able to make a complete escape and be undetected in that amount of time.
If I may, however, I'd like to post a reminder that in the past, political opinions and comments on this board have led to some ugliness; and I hope that we can avoid that happening again. Thanks, everybody.
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Actually, the metaphor is rather antiquated, in that nowadays guns emit hardly any smoke, and it
dissipates very rapidly.
The old nitrate test used to show that the hand of the shooter had chemical traces of the explosive
on it. I don't know if that test is still used.
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Does anyone know where this term originated? Sounds very Perry Mason-like. I learnt the word 'stiff' (metaphorical synonym for a corpse) from him! 
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From Dave Wilton:
Smoking Gun
This phrase, meaning incontrovertible evidence of guilt, is of relatively recent origin. It
actually was first coined by Republican congressman Barber Conable during the
Watergate investigation. The smoking gun in question then was a 23 June 1973 tape of a
conversation between Richard Nixon and his chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman:
Haldeman: ... the FBI is not under control ... and you think the thing to do is
to get them, the FBI, to stop?
Nixon: Right, fine.
Upon hearing the tape, Conable stated that it "looked like a smoking gun," meaning that
from the tape it was clear that Nixon had approved the cover up. Conable may not have
been the first to use the phrase, but he was the first to get credit for using it.
It is somewhat surprising that the phrase is so recent, given that its imagery is so vivid
and obvious. Arthur Conan Doyle, in The Gloria Scott, a Sherlock Holmes story published
in April 1893, used the phrase smoking pistol: "the chaplain stood with a smoking pistol
in his hand." Conan Doyle's usage, however, was quite literal and not figurative. Also, it
referred to a murder case while the current usage is usually found in a political context.
Finally, there is no evidence to indicate that the phrase was used in the intervening
seventy years.
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Is it used often? - up until recently, I mean.
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according to OED (which I know dr. bill likes to "bad word") the New Yorker first used the phrase, and Conable actually echoed Conan Doyle's "smoking pistol".
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