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>In other words, when a language no longer serves the interests of a powerful group it is likely to decline. I had just never thought so clearly of that process applying to a whole script system.
This is an interesting thought. Urdu, the language, apparently, of the socially and politically powerful minority in Pakistan, is in decline. Ismail Merchant, a native Urdu speaker, has written books and produced films on this subject. Here a language that does serve the purpose of a powerful group is declining. Of course, its script, Arabic, is definitely not.
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socially and politically powerful minority [e.a.]
Yes, I think clearly the balance of causative processes is likely to be complex in many social systems. In some examples (perhaps including the one you suggest?) a point is reached where the 'net social energy' has transferred out of the dominant elite's hands, and at that stage the language is likely to start to follow new paths. An analogy from the earlier states of English language development might be the Middle Ages: the narrow elite of King and Court spoke French, but the social shifts were creating a new mercantile middle class, and their vigour and increasing power drove the creation of ME, incorporating much French and Latin into the substructure of Old English. Chaucer was the leading exponent of this process. And as in your example, the script took a slower path to change, though change it did.
I guess Arabic script still has one or two vested interest groups keeping it alive... ;)
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socially and politically powerful minority [e.a.]
It seems to me that the socially and politically powerful also have different needs and expectations of a language than the general population. They can put in the time and energy to use a complex and visually attractive script for ceremonial purposes simply because they have time and energy to spare as well as the ceremonies to organize. When the average Mary or Joe (Maria or Josephus?) becomes literate they want a stripped down functional script that is appropriate for grocery lists, contracts and instruction books. Preferrably one that is relatively quick to learn and "tolerent ov misstaks" A phonetic script would fit that better than a heiroglyphic one, wouldn't it?
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They can put in the time and energy to use a complex and visually attractive script for ceremonial purposes simply because they have time and energy to spare
Good point, my Dear!
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a stripped down functional script
Excellent point, yes; this is certainly borne out too by the quoted example of Middle English development - the merchants wanted language appropriate to use in a contract for cod futures rather than god's future ;)
I am sure the same must apply to the basic orthographic system too: simple is more functional. This can surely be one of the few things to hold back the spread of Chinese in the years ahead. It will be fascinating to see if any abrasion or simplification of their current system starts to happen, driven by economic ties with the West (I seem to remember reading sumtin' about this already starting but can't remember where!) Anyone got anything on this or related examples?
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Simpler scripts.
Curiously, Hebrew seems to have bucked this trend. The post-Exilic script is much more complex than Ancient Hebrew, IMO. The script on the Moabite Stone, basically Hebrew, looks like a sort of alphabetic cuneiform almost, and would, for the non-calligraphers among, be much easier to write than the modern style.
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Mainland Chinese uses a simplified version of the ideographs, but simplified is a relative term.
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Hebrew seems to have bucked this trendmmm, yeah - surprised at that?! Don't want the darn furriners knowing what's going on, do we? 
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Hebrew seems to have bucked this trend Oh, I dunno. Modern Hebrew Cursive seems pretty simple. http://www.omniglot.com/writing/hebrew.htmScroll down to the bottom.
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