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"The planet is getting warmer. Glaciers are melting. Then and now pictures leave no doubt about the severity of the problem."
ClimateGate
Pronunciation
(man-made global warming hoax)
Meaning
noun:
1. Leftist political agenda cloaked as science exposed by the whistle blower who released internal documents of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit.
2. The fraud and duplicity of the man-made global warming perpetrators.
A related word is watermelon: a person (like Al Gore) who is green on the outside, red on the inside.
Etymology
Retronym based on American term WaterGate: a similar situation wherein an insider provided damning evidence against perfidy and hidden agenda.
Usage
"I called ClimateGate 'the global warming scandal of the century' back on November 20. Deeper and deeper it goes. Over the weekend, University of East Anglia global warming cultist Phil Jones conceded that there has been no statistically significant warming over the last 15 years..."
Michelle Malkin; February 15, 2010
A thought for today about man-made global warming:
The Big Lie - a lie so colossal that no one would believe that someone could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.
-Adolph Hitler, Nazi a-hole (Mein Kampf, 1925)
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----please, draw me a sheep----
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Nice to see a word from Irish in AWAD. There is a huge belt of drumlins across the mid-north of Ireland, from coast to coast; Sligo on the west to Down on the east: http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/maps/historical/ice_age.gifMonaghan is in the middle of this region of tens of thousands of drumlins. Hence "the stony grey soil of Monaghan", and placenames likes "Drummeril", in Patrick Kavanagh's famous poem: Stony Grey Soil O stony grey soil of Monaghan The laugh from my love you thieved; You took the gay child of my passion And gave me your clod-conceived. You clogged the feet of my boyhood And I believed that my stumble Had the poise and stride of Apollo And his voice my thick tongued mumble. You told me the plough was immortal! O green-life conquering plough! The mandril stained, your coulter blunted In the smooth lea-field of my brow. You sang on steaming dunghills A song of cowards' brood, You perfumed my clothes with weasel itch, You fed me on swinish food You flung a ditch on my vision Of beauty, love and truth. O stony grey soil of Monaghan You burgled my bank of youth! Lost the long hours of pleasure All the women that love young men. O can I stilll stroke the monster's back Or write with unpoisoned pen. His name in these lonely verses Or mention the dark fields where The first gay flight of my lyric Got caught in a peasant's prayer. Mullahinsa, Drummeril, Black Shanco - Wherever I turn I see In the stony grey soil of Monaghan Dead loves that were born for me.
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And a prediction: "esker" is going to be one of this week's words.
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We on Long Island are actually on a moraine. The ice stopped here. There are many drumlins.
On recent travels in Alaska, twice in the last two years I was able to see up close moraines with the ice behind them. Some were no longer being pushed forward. Seven of the eight major glaciers there are in retreat. The one that isn't retreating is moving because one of the seven is no longer in front of it. One of the Sawyer glaciers in Tracy's Arm is considered in catastrophic retreat. There is no dispute that something is going on with the climate. This is not a matter of politics. People used to dispute that smoking was bad for your health too. Where are they now?
Flying over the Mendenhall Glacier, I wrote this. Too bad I can't post the photo I took from the plane.
Outside the window
Lies a land so foreign,
No, so alien it is beyond
My comprehension to believe
Such a place could exist.
The ground below,
A river of white
Extends as far as the eye can see.
Interrupted only by the sharp points
Of mountaintops popping up
Like islets in a sea of white cotton.
The clouds on the horizon too
Are indistinguishable from the snow
Save for the gray overcast that separates
The cirrus from the cumulus.
This is the most extreme place on earth.
Nothing could live here,
Save an ice worm,
Yet it is a source of life.
The snow, ever moving downward
Eventually to rejoin the sea
The end of a journey
That began at the top of the world. (K. Hickson 2008)
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Thanks for the map (nice map) and gloomy grey poem. An all glacier week or will there be a change for earthquakes and volcanoes and what else we know?
(and thanks for the chilly white poem that followed next)
Last edited by BranShea; 08/10/10 02:34 PM.
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Climate-gate fizzled out. The scientists were absolved. The science is correct. But the urban legend lives on and the term is shibboleth among denialists! Once an exaggeration or misrepresentation gets into the political echo machine, evidence is irrelevant.
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Nice map, indeed. Really helps.
----please, draw me a sheep----
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I think climategate fizzled because the majority of the major media outlets chose not to keep it alive. Nobody has been absolved of anything, really, except by lack of interest on the part of thousands of investigative reporters who only choose to investigate things that support their beliefs. Were the emails forgeries? Did they not say what we all read in them?
Nobody knows what's causing atmospheric temperatures to rise. They've identified a few suspects, like the CO2 from our cars and trucks. Yet, somebody figured out that the recent eruption of the unpronouncable volcano in Iceland released more CO2 than all the internal combustion engines ever built.
Speaking of Iceland, perhaps the CO2 belching from their longships was what warmed the world of the Vikings enough to allow them to settle and prosper on the shores of Greenland a thousand years ago.
Somebody noted that Long Island is a [terminal] glacial moraine. Ten or so thousand years ago, native Americans could see a wall of ice a mile high at the Island's north shore. I don't believe that Shinnecock SUVs made that melt all the way back to the arctic ice cap.
This issue is most definitely a matter of politics. People like myself don't deny that the temperature is changing; we simply don't believe that giving more money to the government and allowing them to curtail our liberty will make the temperature stop changing.
Last edited by beck123; 08/11/10 12:27 AM.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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This issue is most definitely a matter of politics. People like myself don't deny that the temperature is changing; we simply don't believe that giving more money to the government and allowing them to curtail our liberty will make the temperature stop changing.
Here, Here!
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Well, yes, they were absolved. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36104206/A similar report on this side of the Atlantic also cleared Dr. Mann. Quotes out of context aren't much use for determining facts. "Tricks" are very common in science circles and there's a lot of peer-reviewed science papers that have that word in the title. A big deal was also made about the "redefining peer review to exclude two articles." However, those articles were included in the final report, despite the fact that at least one of them was highly suspicious (a review article that misrepresented the findings of other papers, e.g.). Cattiness among scientists - yes. Misrepresentation of the facts - no. Scientists do not claim that C02 is the only factor in global warming. http://www.youtube.com/user/potholer54#p/u/8/w5hs4KVeiAU( P -> Q ) =/=> ( ¬P -> ¬Q ) Part of the problem is that urban legends get reported in the blogosphere and suddenly lots of people are repeating them when they aren't true. http://www.grist.org/article/volcanoes-emit-more-co2-than-humansFor most scientists, the science is independent of the politics. For the political types, it seems they start with their assumption that government interference is bad and then work backwards to filter out any 'science' that doesn't result in problems solvable by that solution. The bastion of liberalism the Jasons warned of global warming 3 decades ago: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4690900.eceThey don't know everything, but I think scientists understand the basic chemistry and thermodynamic properties of C02 pretty well.
Last edited by TheFallibleFiend; 08/11/10 03:35 AM.
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And a prediction: "esker" is going to be one of this week's words. Well guessed! With CO2 reduction people seem to always justify their own comportment by comparing themselves to those who behave worse (volcanoes or Trucks and SUVs, heavy industry. So I transmit Anu's Thought for this Day frome a favorite poet. "Oh, threats of hell and hopes of paradise! / One thing at least is certain -- this life flies; / One thing is certain, and the rest is lies; / The flower that once has blown forever dies." -Omar Khayyam, poet, mathematician, philosopher, astronomer, and physician (1048-1131)
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Speaking of Iceland, perhaps the CO2 belching from their longships was what warmed the world of the Vikings enough to allow them to settle and prosper on the shores of Greenland a thousand years ago.
Somebody noted that Long Island is a [terminal] glacial moraine. Ten or so thousand years ago, native Americans could see a wall of ice a mile high at the Island's north shore. I don't believe that Shinnecock SUVs made that melt all the way back to the arctic ice cap.
Ah, the old "climate changed in the past, so what's different now?" argument. What is definitely different now is the vastly accelerated rate of change. There are natural cycles of cold and warm periods, but nothing in the records (ice cores, tree rings, fossil deposits etc.) indicates anything like the pace of change we've seen in a single century or even 50 years. You don't need SUVs to explain the changes millennia ago to Long Island or Iceland, but you do need SUVs (and everything else we do) to explain what's going on now. I am a scientist by profession; not a climate scientist but an astronomer. I cannot claim personal expertise on this topic but here's what I do claim: the scientific method works. If tens of thousands of scientists around the globe studying this area have formulated a consensus backed up by data, while a few hundred take the opposing view, I will trust the majority, because I trust the scientific method. And so should the citizenry of the world, because it is the only objective process they can trust in a matter like this.
This issue is most definitely a matter of politics. People like myself don't deny that the temperature is changing; we simply don't believe that giving more money to the government and allowing them to curtail our liberty will make the temperature stop changing.
Your liberty is curtailed in all sorts of ways already, for good reasons. You do not have liberty to murder your neighbour, or rape his wife, or poison his children's food and water. All that's changing now is a realisation that we don't have liberty to pollute the atmosphere that we all must share, any more than we have liberty to pollute the municipal water supply that we all must share. "Government" has nothing to do with it. What you perceive as inalienable "liberties" are not being curtailed to appease some leftist lobby in Washington (I am assuming you are American by the clues you've left); they are being curtailed so that statistically, over time, fewer people will suffer and die in a climate characterised by extreme weather like the present Pakistani floods. Or maybe you don't care about their lives and liberties?
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And a prediction: "esker" is going to be one of this week's words. Well guessed! I'm basking here in the glorious success of my prediction. Basking, I tell you. 
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Bask on RB, bask and don't get burned, baked or fried. So what will it be tomorrow ? Corries?
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Scientific method is the way to go. They evidence is plain to see if one just looks. Yes we need to care about what is going on elsewhere. All in all well said RB.
Corries-- saw a lot of these up north in Alaska and sometimes when they thaw in the summer there are magnificent watefalls.
I'm not sure if Corrie is the correct word for some glacial lakes and ponds that were left on Long Island as their initial sides are not steep but some are deep however.
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corries I always like these image pages for a quick view of what it's all about. The world will outlive us. I don't think we will kill it. We will kill ourselves before. Like Easter Island people. ( Just to add something cheerful to the discussion)
Last edited by BranShea; 08/11/10 08:53 PM.
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@ RB:
We are straying far from "drumlin," aren't we? The liberties you say I've already lost are not liberties at all, but unconscionable license that has never been approved at any time in any stable society. Those are not the liberties I claim, and I think you know that.
I'm a scientist, too, with a doctoral degree and some 40 years of experience, so I know the value of the scientific method. Your assumption is that it is being applied in a perfectly objective way to a scientific issue that, if correct, will quickly move the way we are governed in the direction of the political philosophy that is held by the overwhelming majority of academic scientists. It doesn't pass the smell test for me. The same gambit was tried a few decades ago with global cooling. Read the dire drumbeat in every issue of SCIENCE or even SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN from that era.
You also haven't addressed how giving more money and authority to the government or "tranferring" it to the Third World will stop the change in temperature. It will certainly accomplish many of the goals of socialism, but it will not affect the temperature at all.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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SciAm is not peer reviewed to the best of my knowledge, hence the "even" modifier in my post. It's authors are, however, recognized experts in the fields about which they write. They write about the state of science (in their fields) for informed laypersons. Its editorials and columnists are, especially today, entirely politicized and all in the same direction.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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Strange things are happening. I wait and wait and yet sea levels don't rise. Damnation, I sure don't want to go through another Ice Age; the last one was a killer!
Oh well, maybe it'll weed out the fuzzy thinkers.
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Let's hope it doesn't give any advantage to the cold-hearted.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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That was amusing.  @ Beck123 Money can't buy safety nor change of climate, whichever way it will go. But money can do positive things in the way of environmental issues. Tax money has helped build installations that cleaned our inland and coastal waters up to the point that we are now able to swim in it again, which was downright disgusting and dangerous in the -70s. The issue isn't money and politics. It's about awareness, regardless whatever state system you feel comfortable with, about what is serving us (globe and global), not just me. (drumlin-detours))
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Strange things are happening. I wait and wait and yet sea levels don't rise. Damnation, I sure don't want to go through another Ice Age; the last one was a killer! Maybe you can pass your measurements on to NASA. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6638Oh well, maybe it'll weed out the fuzzy thinkers. Doubtful. It's easier to parrot "news" contrived on a fair and balanced network and then promulgated across the echo chamber of a yammering, mindless blogosphere than it is to look stuff up. But we can hope.
Last edited by TheFallibleFiend; 08/12/10 01:15 PM.
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Well, it could be that the writers of SciAm are part of the global conspiracy to deprive Americans of their money and liberty. Or it could be that they actually understand the science in their own field better than politicos and scientists from outside their field - and it could be that companies that depend on carbon fuel, similar to tobacco companies back in the 50s, realize that they don't have to win this argument - all they have to do is create sufficient doubt. This would explain why most of the scholarly papers purporting to refute AGW originate with groups like CEI, AEI, Cato Inst, among others - which are funded by Heritage Foundation and Heartland Inst which is funded by big oil (among other things). http://www.edf.org/documents/3943_paidskeptics.pdfHere's a new word that I'd like to see discussed: agnatology. The scientists are fighting a losing battle. People demand an unreasonable amount of evidence from them, but none - absolutely none it seems for the false rumors, exaggerations, and innuendo - that they picked up and pass on in office banter ... er ... arrive through their own insightful reasoning from their carefully collected data. Really. I'd like to see "agnatology" discussed - and that term the other fellow brought up "watermelon" ... and maybe a few others like "astroturfing."
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Interesting graph, that NASA graph, what with an arbitrary base level for dramatic effect. Even so it looks like I'll have to wait one hundred years before I can get my feet wet. Darn. During previous Interglacials sea level rose big time, eighteen feet or more. Ah, those were the days.
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agnotology (formerly agnatology) (see derivation), the study of culturally-induced ignorance or doubt 
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part of the global conspiracy to deprive Americans of their money and libertyOh, I love a goodly conspiracy theory. They just grow exponentially as they borg more cacomamy factoids. Maybe we could get the grays and the academicians in here, too. And, Scientific American? Please. It's the Internet, that's the ticket; it's the biggest of all governmental mind-controlling conspiracies that's really at the bottom of global warming and fluoridation of our precious bodily fluids. astroturfingMaybe we could discuss FUD ( link), too.
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
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The data are consistent with the increasing trend over the past century, but yes, the data do look to have accelerated from about 2.4 mm/yr over this century to about 3 mm/yr (just eyeballing) over the time period in the graph. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/MSL_global_trendtablefc.htmlIf they had wanted to be dramatic, they could show the increasing trend over a century with the increasing-increasing trend over this decade. No scientist has predicted that you would get your feet wet. Look up the term "straw man." And while it's probably of no interest to you - your personally getting your feet wet is no indication of the potential effect on other people. Look up "non sequitur." Why would you compare the current situation to the peak of the LIG? During the last LIG, do you think that it just jumped to that level in a century or a decade or ... a second? 2.4 - 3 mm/yr rise today compares to 5.6 to 9.2 mm/yr rise throughout LIG. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html"Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage" However, "polar temperatures [were] ~3–5 °C warmer than today" due partly to the fact that "Earth's orbital eccentricity was more than twice the modern value." Further, "As a result of industrial activity, greenhouse gas concentrations now exceed levels reached on Earth at any time within the past 800 kyr. Given a climate sensitivity of 2–4.5 °C per doubling of carbon dioxide levels, current greenhouse gas concentrations––without considering any further increases––are sufficient to cause an equilibrium warming of 1.4–3.2 °C." It is folly of me to continue, being as how peer-reviewed articles in Nature are orchestrated by the Illuminati, NWO, reptilian conspiracy, so I'm done. Peer-reviewed science is insignificant compared to the awesome power of "because I said so" or "I heard somewhere."
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Peer-reviewed science is insignificant compared to the awesome power of "because I said so" or "I heard somewhere."
Ipsedixitism ...
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Ah yes, peer-review. The same system that works for politicians. Throughout history the dogmas of formal science have obscured reality. You know, like the more arcane religions.
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FUD is a technique employed by used car salesmen to pressure you into signing the papers NOW, RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE WHEN YOU COME BACK THIS BABY WILL BE OUT THE DOOR! And by some computer salesmen on IT managers - if you go with one of those CHEAPER guys, but they're gonna be outta business soon and then where would you be? It's also used by some religious practitioners to convince potential acolytes to commit themselves RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE YOU COULD DIE BY MORNING AND THEN WHERE WOULD YOU BE? Politicians, too, when they want or need to goad colleagues or constituents into immediate action without thinking of the repercussions. Robert Procter's neologism is appropriate and descriptive, though. Here's an interesting talk about how the of agnotology is implemented: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T4UF_Rmlio
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... money can do positive things in the way of environmental issues. Tax money has helped build installations that cleaned our inland and coastal waters up to the point that we are now able to swim in it again, which was downright disgusting and dangerous in the -70s. That is one way to solve the problem, but there are others. We accomplished the same result here with a regulatory scheme that imposed stricter and stricter environmental standards over a few decades. The actual work was done with corporate money, and corporations were encouraged to arrive at suitable outcomes, not necessarily to follow government methods. Corporations developed economical ways to reach a large number of the goals set by government, and the effect on consumer prices was barely noticeable. And, we were not taxed, except to fund the regulatory agencies. Another tool that was used was tax incentives: reduction in corporate taxes for the timely accomplishment of environmental goals. That's even better, in my opinion: it's the right way to deal with people, so why shouldn't it work for corporations? PS - I like your new avatar. Looks like a polyommatine lycaenid, maybe the genus Polyommatus
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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Yes of course, the means you mentioned are practised alongside of the tax system here as well. Whatever works is fine. Many environment issues are just obvious and we can do something about it. Like some recent massive mud slides (China) are clearly the result of tree cutting and smogs in cities due to holy-cow car. Turn bikes into a serious means of transportation and you can breath fresher air and fight overweight all in one. Paris has car-freed the quais of the Seine. Everybody is delighted. Bikes are fine.
Yes, the butterfly is one of your Polyommatusses. They pass faithfully once a year when in the backyard the blackberries blossom.
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speaking of scientists, wasn't the antagonist in Sagan's Contact named Drumlin?
formerly known as etaoin...
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Sofar I've only known the writer Françoise Sagan. The one who wrote a.o. "Bonjour Tristesse" 
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Sofar I've only known the writer Françoise Sagan. The one who wrote a.o. "Bonjour Tristesse" ah, Carl Sagan.
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Excerpt from "Pale Blue Dot" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pfwY2TNehwWe can see the entire Cosmos series at Hulu for free (at least for now): http://www.hulu.com/search?query=cosmos&st=1Sagan's "Demon-Haunted World" should be required reading for any advanced high school diploma and for all college students. He had a keen interest in the stumbling blocks (obvious and not so obvious) to human civilization. http://www.philosophy.thecastsite.com/readings/godwantsyoudead/demonhauntedworld.pdf"... science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness."
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I get a popup saying that it will only stream to IP addresses in the USA. 
"... science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness."
That's the most profound thing I've read in some time. He was definitely onto something. Anyone here follow the new "hot word" forums at Dictionary.com? They are a complete mess of the ignorant, the demented, and the religiously brainwashed. Every single topic gets hijacked into an "Only Jesus can save you! (unless you're gay)" sort of thing. I think we are already far advanced in "sliding...back into superstition and darkness".
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Same thing happens with the NPR, Science, The Economist, NatGeo, etc. groups on Facebook. You often can't have an intelligent conversation about a new science-related article without a gaggle of them redirecting the thread by interjecting some irrelevant or completely mistaken "point." You want to just leave it, but it's so insane or the actual facts so readily available, you feel like you have to respond, lest some unwary person take it seriously. You can let it stand which allows them to continue crowing about how nobody can refute them, or you can rebut their assertions which 1) feeds the conspiracy mentality (see! if we weren't on to something, why is everybody so MAD at us?); 2) makes them appear more legitimate than they are (see! people think we're worth responding to!); 3) doesn't prevent them from crowing victory no matter how inane their "point" is. In rare and for the most part extreme circumstances, I have experienced both hallucination and delusion, but I realized the situation in short order. However the delusion some people have of their understanding of science is of an entirely different character. This is, I suspect, largely due to the Dunning-Kruger effect. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.64.2655&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Last edited by TheFallibleFiend; 08/17/10 03:57 PM.
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Dunning-Kruger effect.Thanks for linking to that paper. It was one of the better things I've read in a long time. Errol Morris interviewed Dunning for his blog at the NY Times ( link).
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
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Now here's some fun you boys can have: Without degradating the source, disassemble the information presented in this news article...bet you can't. http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/26603
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----please, draw me a sheep----
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Yes Luke, it does ramble on, but that is just bad writting.
And with regard to the information content...?
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The critical difference is that skeptics are open to evidence, whereas denialists have made up their minds are just looking to justify their beliefs. By my understanding, for example, apologists are denialists.
The skeptic will want to know more about a particular thing, before coming to a conclusion whether firm or tentative. He may or may not acquire that requisite knowledge. The denialist, OTOH, before he has anything approaching a sufficient understanding is either dismissing evidence or exaggerating it in accordance with his preconceived emotional attachments.
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FF, my computer security is blocking the download, and at this point I'm leery of overriding it. Any chance you could copy the piece and send it to me by PM?
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The critical difference is that skeptics are open to evidence, whereas denialists have made up their minds are [sic] just looking to justify their beliefs. I've heard this from both sides of the bench, and it's always the other person who is the denialist (a neologism to dismiss those who disagree, apparently derived in modern usage from "Holocaust denier," which nobody was able to write without it appearing French) and one's self who is the skeptic, regardless of the topic. Knowing the definition of either or both words does not guarantee that we won't work real hard convincing ourselves that we are in the desirable category.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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Knowing the definition of either or both words does not guarantee that we won't work real hard convincing ourselves that we are in the desirable category.
One isn't in the category based on one's answer to the question. One is categorized correctly by how one approaches evidence - or even the idea of evidence.
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That's not my point. We all know what constitutes evidence, we all (especially the skeptics among us) decide what is convincing and what is not. We are not told this. One is placed in one or the other of the categories by oneself and by the one with whom one disagrees. The self-placement is always as skeptic. The name-calling is reserved for one's opponent.
And by the way, once one becomes convinced of the veracity of a particular matter, one is no longer a skeptic concerning that matter, by definition, so one must choose a new descriptor.
"I don't know which is worse: ignorance or apathy. And, frankly, I don't care." - Anonymous
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Certainly, some people are deluding themselves. If a person makes up their mind on a subject prior to even seeing the evidence, he is hardly a skeptic no matter what he wishes to call himself.
And while there are people who are legitimately skeptical - there are others who clearly have made up their minds, as evidenced by their willingness to accept any stupid claim offered and promulgate that claim without doing any critical thinking on that claim themselves. The person can call himself the Virgin Mary, but it doesn't make him a skeptic.
A person can approach a subject skeptically and then become convinced by the evidence. Still, the person is a proper skeptic, if not on that subject - at least he examined the evidence prior to developing an opinion. There are those who make up their minds and then demand unreasonable evidence for the contrary, but accept (and repeat and repeat and repeat) literally any stupid claim they happen to hear that appears to agree with them. Again, the person may call himself a skeptic in the same way that mob boss might call himself a businessman.
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Any chance you could copy the piece and send it to me by PM?
Probably not as it's a scan of the paper, not text, in PDF form.
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
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Ah, to join in the battle, but I am skeptical about its outcome. Two of my favorite examples from the world of languages are these: In the 19th century, there was a French ANE professor, Halevy, who was skeptical about whether Sumerian (just being to show up in the archeological record in Mesopotamia) was a "real" language or some kind of code or jargon invented by Assyrian scribes and priest to make their writings seem more esoteric held on to this believe to the end, though as more and more evidence that Sumerian was a real language surfaced, many of his supporters decamped. The other one took place in the '50s of the previous century. After Michael Ventris presented his decipherment of Linear B (as an archaic Greek language), there were some old-timers who were not convinced. Most everybody today follows Ventris'.
The thing that was interesting in both cases is how ad hominem and vociferous the argument became. Human nature one suspects. And, how little anybody knows of or even remembers it today.
[Edit: removed a superfluous "in both cases".]
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
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Ad hominem is more than just name-calling. Ad hominem is a logical fallacy. It is a logical fallacy to say "that person's statement is false, because he is an X." It can happen explicitly or implicitly.
It's not a logical fallacy to say that a source of "information" has repeatedly demonstrated a calculated attempt to misrepresent the facts or even a pathological indifference to truth. Nor is it a logical fallacy to call one who has lied a liar. I'm not even sure it's name-calling. Of course I'm aware that personal perception plays some role in this - but it's also true that some people lack integrity. That some people are at least genuinely, if profoundly, mistaken does not mean that liars do not exist.
Calling one's self "fair and balanced" does not make one "fair and balanced." Calling one's self a skeptic, does not make one a skeptic. I think there's no better word than denialist in some cases (unless it is rejectionist), but I would settle for the term "doubter."
Even someone who comes to accept or reject a particular view can still be considered a genuine skeptic to the extent that she is willing to examine critically evidence contrary to his previously conclusions. But someone who makes up their minds - before they understand the least little details of the matter - that person is not a skeptic, regardless of belief or disbelief.
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Ad hominem is more than just name-calling. Ad hominem is a logical fallacy.
You talkin' t'me? I don't think I said or implied that ad hominem was name-calling or not a logical fallacy. I was also not suggesting that i side with the Halevy group [extinct) or the anti-Ventrists. BTW, what happened to you avatar? Broken link icon is all I get ...
Ceci n'est pas un seing.
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You didn't say or imply either of those things, but I nevertheless wanted to clarify. When there's a fox in the hen house, it's not entirely inappropriate for the farmer to make note of the fact - and pasting chicken feathers on a toothy grin does not allay the concern.
There are surely, SURELY cases where people have honest and very strong disagreements where the differing parties incorrectly surmise bad intent from the other. I see this with dogs in the dog park all the time. Two dogs get along fine with all the other dogs, but not with each other. Most of the time it's just that one dog has misunderstood another dog's action. Same thing happens with people. I know this. I recognize it at least some times. But not every situation involves only two parties. Sometimes there are two legitimate sides, but there are also others who have their own interest in an outcome that has nothing whatever to do with the facts involved.
I'm not sure what happened with my icon. I don't recall doing anything with it. Will look at it later.
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I thought this was apropos to the discussion of skepticism: The Geek Rapture I especially liked this quote - Well, I’m going to go with “I don’t know”. I know it’s not a very sexy answer, but it’s one that thinking about the subject critically leads me to, and it’s one that I’m okay with. And “I don’t know” doesn’t mean something won’t come to light that would make me change my mind. Indeed the subject fascinates me, and I will continue to look into it, and keep an open mind about what the future holds. But I’m not going to make any hard and fast predictions, nor am I going to adjust my life or my thinking as though the Singularity is coming.
formerly known as etaoin...
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Thanks! Got your PM.
Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. This was one of the relatively few situations that bumfuzzled me as a Child Protective Services investigator. A parent would look at me, chin cocked belligerently, and say, "Oh, yeah? And just what's wrong with the way I'm raising my kid(s)?" The sort answer would have been, "Change your entire lifestyle", but that would have turned them deaf to any future suggestions by the follow-up worker. I never did come up with a really good response.
improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities. I think probably most of us have been through this; as we begin to study something fairly intricate (even learning to use my computer, for me) we realize we don't even know enough to ask the right questions. I read once where the 70-to-100 flying hours range was the most dangerous because after 70, new pilots think they know it all, and after 100 they realize they don't!
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Thanks! Got your PM.
[color:#3333FF]I never did come up with a really good response.
How can one use logic to convince another that he is not logical? What evidence can one supply to another that he completely misunderstands the nature of evidence? It is a very common occurrence for me to hear or read a person quoting some famous scientist that the second law of thermodynamics is paramount in physics and quite inviolable, that abiogenesis and evolution were they true would obviously violate this law, and that therefore they cannot be true. The claimant is typically wholly unfamiliar with the quoted scientist's work beyond this quote. The claims seems incredible. "How do you know this?" He provides a canned comic book summary of second law that is circulating among various creationist sites - generally, but not always, a cut-n-paste. "Have you taken a course in thermodynamics?" No. "Have you read a book on it?" No. "Have you read any scientific papers on it?" No. "Have you solved any problems using thermodynamic either theoretical or real?" No. "Have you discussed the subject with a recognized expert in the field?" No. "Do you realize there are very many people who have read the books, and taken courses, and read journal articles, and solved problems and discussed with the experts who disagree not just with our conclusion, but who would maintain that your entire understanding is mistaken?" They just don't want to admit the obvious conclusion. "I see. Do you think you could read a book on it?" That would be a waste of time. And so forth. It gives me no pleasure to convey to you that my dog knows more about thermodynamics than these people, because my dog's head is not full of a lot of false "knowledge" and surely a little girl dog without even the awareness of a subject is less ignorant than someone with a head full of stupidity who nevertheless feels qualified to educate others on the subject. It is a common tactic or technique to list a bunch of objections to a subject one after the other with demands that each of these items must be refuted; otherwise, the "skeptic" is victorious. We call this "bundle of sticks," but in some circles it's known as "the Gish gallop." The list of items is generally cut-n-pasted or a link is pasted. It takes the person all of 20 seconds to create a challenge when one is unconstrained by intellectual integrity. A good response, of course, might take many minutes or even hours to research - by which time the "victor" has moved 5 assertions ahead. "Ah, but you haven't addressed these other cut-n-pasted, spoon-fed factoids ... er, carefully reasoned, personal conclusions!" It would be conducive to understanding to pick just one thing at a time - just one thing and really try to understand it. I think thermodynamics is a bit ambitious for most of these people - but it's not entirely inaccessible. It would do. They could take the issue and really try to understand it. Read a book, solve some problems, talk it over with people who use it and understand it. But, no, obviously the brainwashed scientists don't understand thermodynamics.
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is a virtue. Perfectly reasonable to say, "Well, I've thought about this and I can't make up my mind." or even "I don't have the time to go through this right now, but I really doubt what you're saying."
Of course that's very different from presenting poorly researched factoids as reliable data that one has to spend one's valuable time to refute. "My point that I read from some random guy on the Internet holds until you prove me wrong." (Waste of time, because the challenger isn't going to admit he's wrong anyway, but more importantly, we see the clear disparity in thinking. *YOU* have to absolutely prove everything you claim, but the claims they make stand until they are proven false.)
Also very different from demanding the answer to a question with an implied false assertion. "If we came from monkeys, how come there are still monkeys?"
But, "Really. I don't know." Completely reasonable. OTOH, there is a lot of effort and no small amount of money put into ensuring that we conclude exactly that.
Last edited by TheFallibleFiend; 08/20/10 02:07 AM.
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