Does anybody know how this phrase came into use? I hear it on various TV shows to describe somebody who has enough qualifications to get into the next round, provided that some later contestant doesn't score higher. I first heard it on Fear Factor 3 or 4 years ago, and again this morning in our paper in the TV section--something about somebody on A.I.* being "on the bubble" pending others' performances.
*American Idol, in this case!

based on the idea that something on the surface of a bubble is as likely to roll in one direction as in another
- Cambridge Dictionary of American Idioms

A quick googling finds this: http://poker.about.com/od/pokerglossary/g/bubble.htm It makes sense to me that it would arise from poker as the game is so popular right now, and has been for the last 5 years or so, especially Texas Hold'em. It may stem from, as tsuwm said, rolling easily in any direction, indicating an uncertain outcome. To me it indicates the perilous position of someone, or something, that if it goes the wrong way, the bubble will break and somethin's gonna fall! It could also relate to being on the edge, as that's to where bubbles usually migrate, still indicating a risky position. :0)

I'm pretty sure poker borrowed the already available term.

I'm sure you're right! But I didn't dig any farther. I don't think it's very old, though. Just a hunch with no knowledge/research behind it at all...

financial market bubbles have been talked of for ages, see especially The Bubble.

-joe (Swiftly rising) friday

The term 'bubble' is often used of boom times about to 'burst' it is true, but I suspect that the phrase "on the bubble" is synonymous with "on the boil" and refers to being active and moving like a pot of boiling water or stew or something - bubbling with red hot activity. Similar in meaning to the phrases "hot to trot" or "cooking with gas" etc.

"bubble, bubble toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble..."

Er--thanks, people. I did figure the reason it's used is what the Idiom Dict. said. What I was wondering is why the phrase gained relatively sudden popularity? Was it in some movie (which, obviously, I did not see)?

I'm sticking by my original answer: poker

you want to talk popular?

well, a much more *popular usage than poker is sports tournament selection. as tournament selection approaches, teams that don't automatically qualify or don't have imposing qualifying records, but are still hopeful of being invited to a tournament, are said to be on the bubble in Bracketology speak.

and here's the proof:
link "on the bubble" +sports - 501,000 ghits [plus individual sports; e.g., basketball]
"on the bubble" +poker - 128,000 ghits

Now you're cheating! I really couldn't care less about college b-ball, but, along with thousands of others like me, I flail about in the March Madness pool at work, wasting $5 to have a shot at creating the most random/crazy winning bracket. I would say the hits on college b-ball sites, especially ESPN, which runs online pools, must increase 1,000 percent or more in March. The poker hits probably remain fairly constant year round. If you look at it this way, the poker hits slam the college b-ball hits... Now since I have no idea how to find the hit counts, I don't know how to verify it, or how to find my own, so I'm kinda stuck. Don't get me wrong, I believe you, I just can't find any numbers of my own! :0)

I'd never heard it. of course, AI and poker are about as far away from my interests as anything, so, I'm not surprised.

>AI and poker are about as far away from my interests as anything

you don't do American Idioms?? (or did another AI sneak in here somewheres?)

idley, I guess...

I think the original mention of A.I. in this thread was in Jackie's OP and it would be American Idol.

don (filling in for ron in his absence) obvious

So much for a nice, definitive answer; I might have known. Just 'cause I like things clear doesn't mean they're going to be. Thanks, you-all. I find I'm leaning toward the poker answer, because while b-ball, etc. have been around for years and years and years, poker popularity (to the extent that it is now) is indeed a recent phenomenon.

In that case it definitely has nothing to do with intelligence, artificial or natural!

Or you could ask folks who might really know.

or you could try googling origin: "on the bubble", with the I'm Feeling Lucky button:

Dear Word Detective: I'm a librarian in Edmonds WA, and can't seem to locate the origin of the phrase "on the bubble." It seems to be a sports and business phrase that relates to salary caps or staff cuts. -- Ginny Rollett, Edmonds Library. Edmonds WA.

Since I have not been much of a sports fan since the Dodgers deserted Brooklyn (I was, of course, a wee tot at the time, but the perfidy still stings), your question left me temporarily flummoxed. I checked Paul Dickson's "New Dickson's Baseball Dictionary" (1999), where I learned that "on the bubble" is applied to a player who is on the verge of being sent down to the minor leagues, called up to the majors, or traded. But the only clue given about the logic of the term was that the player's "bubble" is about to burst, and there was no explanation of the term's source.

Fortunately, I then thought to check the online archives of ADS-L, the e-mail discussion group of the American Dialect Society. Lo and behold, there had been a spirited discussion of "on the bubble" back in January 1999, and, as is often the case on ADS-L, somebody actually knew the probable origin of the term.

It seems that "on the bubble" almost certainly comes from the qualifying runs preceding the annual Indianapolis 500 auto race, in which cars compete for the limited number of starting places in the race. Since there are several qualifying runs, the slowest, barely-qualifying car in any given run is said to be "on the bubble" because just one other car making better time in a subsequent run would burst that driver's bubble and dash his or her dream of competing in the big race. The final day of qualifying runs is known, in fact, as "Bubble Day."

Just exactly when "on the bubble" made its first appearance at the Indy 500 is uncertain, although one ADS-L correspondent remembers it being in use back in the 1950s, but over the last twenty years or so it has migrated into the vocabularies of football and basketball commentators, and now into the realm business-speak as well.

-joe (bursting all our bubbles) friday

Or you could ask folks who might really know.
But but but--I was sure someone here would! But ok, I stand suitably chastized.

Thanks to both of you for the info. [sigh of relief e]

I grew up in Indy, and I can vouch for the fact that the Indy 500 Bump Day tradition goes back as early as the 1960s. (Lordy I'm getting old.)

And of course Bump Day is the day that faster qualifiers can still get into the race by knocking the driver off the bubble!

Steffani

Query, Steffani, and welcome aBoard. Should I think of Steffani being pronounced the same as when it's spelled Stephanie, or as in Gwen? I find myself switching back and forth, and it is unsettling!

Thanks for the welcome! I'm embarrassingly geeked about finding the Wordsmith.org website.

In my case Steffani is pronounced the same as Stephanie. My mom was a German immigrant which might explain the spelling somewhat.

Hi Steffani! Does you mom say it "shtefahni"? Do you have a nickname "Steffi" (or "shteffi"? I stayed with a German family in Chile, and they had a daughter they called Steffi (with the sh sound). Just curious! :0)

For some reason, when she'd say my whole name (Steffani) she didn't "Sh" most of the time. She usually called me Steffi, though and that was "Sh"teffi probably 90% of the time.

Welcome Steffi.